- NATO intelligence services indicate that Russia is developing an "area effect" anti-satellite weapon against Starlink.
- The system would disperse clouds of almost undetectable pellets that would primarily damage solar panels and critical equipment.
- Experts warn of risks of orbital chaos, Kessler syndrome, and damage to satellites worldwide, including those of Russia and China.
- The Starlink network is key to Ukraine's military and civilian communications and Western space superiority.
The intelligence services of several NATO countries They have raised the alarms: Russia is reportedly working on a new type of anti-satellite weapon designed to directly strike the Starlink constellationThe low-Earth orbit satellite system operated by SpaceX is crucial for Ukraine's communications. The information, shared confidentially with allied governments and leaked to the Associated Press (AP), describes a project capable of seeding an entire swath of space with shrapnel.
According to these documents, The Kremlin would see Starlink a direct strategic threat, considering that its network of thousands of satellites gives Ukrainian forces a decisive advantage on the battlefield. From there, Moscow is reportedly promoting a "zone effect" system which could not only blind or disable a large part of the megaconstellation, but also generate a volume of rubble with unpredictable consequences for the rest of the space actors, including Russia and its allies.
A new generation of anti-satellite weapons
Intelligence reports consulted by AP describe a weapon concept that departs from the classic anti-satellite missiles used so far by various powers. Instead of impacting a specific target, this "area effect" system would seek flood the orbits where Starlink satellites operate with clouds of small, high-density projectiles.
The idea would be to release into space hundreds of thousands of tiny pelletsThese fragments, just a few millimeters in diameter, are capable of penetrating solar panels, antennas, and sensitive components. At orbital speeds of over seven kilometers per second, even a minuscule fragment becomes a devastating projectile capable of taking a satellite out of service with a single impact.
Compared to the Russian test of 2021—when the destruction of an old Soviet satellite generated a cloud of space debris that was widely criticized internationally—this new system I wouldn't aim for a single target.The documents cited by AP indicate that the pellets they would disperse across a broad orbital regime, possibly released from formations of small satellites not yet launched.
Western officials consulted by the agency insist that, for Moscow, Starlink has become a priority targetElon Musk's network has allowed Ukraine to maintain secure communications on the front lines, coordinate drone strikes, guide weaponry, and sustain civilian services in areas where ground infrastructure has been destroyed by bombing.
Almost invisible pellets, difficult to attribute
One of the aspects that most worries analysts is that the projectiles described in the reports would be so small that they would escape most tracking systems space debrisGround-based radars and orbiting sensors often have trouble detecting objects just a few millimeters in size, so much of this shrapnel would go unnoticed.
This technical invisibility would not only increase the risk of a collision, but would also complicate the direct attribution of a possible attack to RussiaIf, suddenly, dozens or hundreds of satellites begin to fail due to damage to solar panels or fuselages, it could take operators a long time to reconstruct what happened and who is behind it, although space security experts point out that, with enough data, the international community would eventually "put two and two together."
The Leaked documents suggest that most of the damage would be concentrated precisely in the solar panels of satellitesThese are its most fragile and exposed components. However, an impact could also puncture fuel tanks, attitude control systems, or communications equipment, causing catastrophic failures and total loss of the spacecraft.
Allied intelligence officials emphasize that Starlink's orbits are located at an altitude of around 550 kilometers., a region heavily crowded with other critical communications, Earth observation and defense systems, from both Western countries and Russia, China or other emerging powers.
Risk of spatial chaos and Kessler syndrome
The potential deployment of an "area effect" weapon has led several specialists to warn of a scenario close to... large-scale Kessler syndromeThis concept, formulated in the 70s, describes a chain reaction in which each collision in orbit generates more fragments, which in turn cause new impacts, until the orbital environment is saturated with debris for decades or centuries.
In the scenario presented, a dense cloud of pellets would have the capacity to sweep an entire swath of low orbitThis would first damage operational satellites and then scatter more debris from those collisions. As these fragments intersected with other trajectories, they could compromise a substantial portion of the more than 14.000 active satellites estimated to be in low Earth orbit today.
Experts consulted by AP and other media outlets emphasize that an incident of this magnitude would have effects Live broadcasts on the global economy and securityWithout operational satellites, navigation networks (GPS and equivalent systems), international communications, the synchronization of financial transactions, weather observation and climate change monitoring, among many other critical functions, would be affected.
The risks would not be limited to Western systems. International Space Station And the Chinese Tiangong space station, which flies at lower altitudes than the Starlink satellites, could also be threatened by the progressive fall of pellets and debris from higher orbits, posing a significant risk to astronauts and cosmonauts from various agencies, including the Russian one.
A weapon that would also endanger Russia and China
Despite the alarming nature of the reports, numerous analysts consulted by AP and other specialized media outlets remain optimistic. deeply skeptical about whether Moscow would actually use a system of this kind. The main argument is simple: such an indiscriminate weapon would harm not only the West, but also the own Russian and Chinese satellitesas well as future space projects of both countries.
Victoria Samson, a space security specialist at the US-based Secure World Foundation, considers that this type of development “It would have an exorbitant cost for Russia itself.After decades of investing economic, technological, and human resources to consolidate itself as a space power, the The Kremlin would risk abruptly cutting off its access to low Earth orbit if it triggered an uncontrollable chain of collisions..
Samson does not rule out that the investigations are, in part, of an experimental or conceptual natureThis is common practice in military programs. Scientists and defense teams can explore extreme ideas without necessarily implying that they will be deployed. It also leaves open the possibility that the leak of these capabilities is part of influence tactics: fostering a perception of threat can serve to justify budget increases for space capabilities by the United States and its allies.
In contrast, military commanders such as Brigadier General Christopher Horner, head of the Canadian Armed Forces Space Division, point out that the project “It is not implausible"Given that Washington has previously accused Russia of researching space-based nuclear weapons, if Moscow were willing to go that far," they add, "it wouldn't be unreasonable for it to explore options one step below, but equally destabilizing."
Starlink, a key element in the war in Ukraine
Starlink's relevance in this equation has to do, above all, with its role in the war in UkraineA few days after the start of the large-scale invasion, in February 2022, the system was activated over the country following an express request from kyiv to SpaceX to replace the communications networks destroyed by Russia.
Since then, the network terminals have become critical infrastructure for Ukrainian forcesThey allow for the coordination of units on the front lines, the guidance of drones and artillery, the maintenance of secure links between military commands, and the assurance that hospitals, emergency services, and local administrations remain connected even amid power outages and bombings.
In practice, Elon Musk's constellation has consolidated itself as a central component of Western spatial superiority This is in contrast to Russia, which explains why the Kremlin perceives it as just another cog in NATO's military machine. In fact, Russian officials have repeatedly stated that the commercial satellites used by Ukraine can be considered "legitimate targets."
In parallel with the alleged advances in the "area effect" weapon, Moscow has announced the deployment of the S-500 missile systemcapable, according to Russian authorities, of reaching targets in low Earth orbit. This dual approach—conventional missiles against specific targets and a possible pellet system against entire constellations—fuels concerns that space is becoming increasingly entrenched as a new theater of military confrontation.
The evidence gathered by Western intelligence agencies, Starlink's central role in Ukraine, and Russian movements in space defense paint a delicate picture: a race for control of near-Earth space in which any misstep could trigger lasting damage for all actors, with consequences that would go far beyond the current conflict and fully affect daily life in Europe and the rest of the world.
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