NASA increases the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth

Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in December 2024, has become the most monitored space object today due to its probable approach to Earth. With a probability of impact of 3,1% According to NASA, this celestial body continues to be the subject of study by space agencies and astronomers around the world.

This asteroid, classified within the group of near-Earth objects, has a diameter ranging from 40 to 90 metersIn the event of a collision, it is estimated that would release an amount of energy equivalent to several megatons of TNT, enough to cause severe local damage.

Latest impact calculations

Since its discovery, the probability of impact has fluctuated due to improved measurements of its orbit. Initially, its probability of collision was estimated at 1,2%, a figure that has increased over time. Latest NASA Update has raised the probability to 3,1%, while the The European Space Agency (ESA) puts it at 2,8%.

According to the Turin scale, which measures the risk of impact of near-Earth objects, Asteroid 2024 YR4 is in level 3. This means that, although it deserves the attention of astronomers, does not yet represent an imminent threat.

Possible impact zones

One of the most important aspects of studying this asteroid is determining Which regions could be affected in a hypothetical impact?Current models indicate that their risk trajectory includes:

• The Eastern Pacific Ocean, where an impact could generate Tsunami.
• Coastal areas of South America, including Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador.
• West and central Africa, with possible effects in countries such as Nigeria and Cameroon.
• South Asia, covering India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

How the asteroid is monitored

To improve predictions about its trajectory, astronomers have turned to ground-based telescopes such as the Large Telescope of the Canary IslandsHowever, in a few months, the asteroid will pass behind the Sun, making it difficult to observation from Earth.

For this reason, the james webb space telescope will take over the surveillance of this celestial body. Its powerful instruments will allow more precise data to be obtained on its size and composition, providing key information for evaluating the risks more accurately.

How could the impact be avoided?

If future observations confirm that the probability of impact remains high, Various strategies would be considered to divert the asteroid. Among the most viable options are:

• Kinetic impactors: missions similar to NASA's DART probe, which in 2022 managed to deflect an asteroid upon colliding with it.
• Use of nuclear explosions: a more extreme measure that would be considered only in cases of emergency.
• Gravitational tractors: a probe that, through its own gravity, would gradually alter the asteroid's trajectory.

Time plays in our favor

Although the headlines may be alarming, the truth is that there is still much to be done. plenty of time to continue analyzing the behavior of 2024 YR4. In the coming months and years, the scientific community will continue to monitor its orbit and apply the latest technological advances to reduce the uncertainty in their calculations.

In case there is still a possibility of impact when the asteroid becomes visible again in 2028, the UN and the world's major space agencies are already preparing action plans to ensure the safety of humanity.

Experts insist that calculations may change and future observations are likely to rule out a collision entirely. What is clear is that these types of events remind us of the importance of space surveillance and the need to continue Perfecting our planetary defense techniques.