- Scion Asset Management holds puts of approximately $1.100 billion in Palantir and Nvidia
- The manager fuels the debate about a possible AI bubble after cryptic messages on X
- The 13F does not allow us to know if the puts are a hedge or a directional bet
- Europe and Spain, exposed through large technology companies, ETFs and providers such as ASML
El investor Michael Burry, famous for predicting the 2008 crisis, has reappeared with a play that once again puts the spotlight on the Artificial Intelligence. In its latest communications to the US regulator, its firm Scion Asset Management has declared a significant bearish position on two iconic names from the AI boomThis has reignited the debate about whether the sector is experiencing a bubble. On European stock exchanges and among Spanish savers, The implications of this movement have not gone unnoticed..
The move comes after a return to social media in which Burry hinted that, when the market gets heated, sometimes it's best to step back. Without mentioning specific names, He shared charts on the surge in technology capital spending and potential funding pathways among major AI players.These messages were described as enigmatic by some media outlets, while official data confirmed the positions. The alignment of public signals with the figures from February 13th has set off alarm bells..
What exactly has Burry done?
According to the most recent Form 13F, Scion Asset Management has purchased put options on Palantir and Nvidia in the context of the chip sector for notional amounts of approximately $912,1 million and $186,5 million, respectively. In terms of underlying assets, the reported exposure is equivalent to approximately five million shares of Palantir and one million shares of Nvidia. These are puts that gain value if prices fall..
Alongside these hedges or short positions, Scion has also taken call options in Pfizer and Halliburton, and maintains positions in Lululemon, Molina Healthcare, Bruker, and SLM. In recent quarters, the fund closed profitable trades in companies such as Alibaba, Estée Lauder, ASML, and Regeneron. The overall bias suggests a more defensive and selective portfolio outside the core AI sector..
The signals on social media and the context of the debate
Days before the February 13th attacks, Burry broke a long silence in X to warn about the risk of euphoria. He shared charts showing a surge in US tech capital expenditures comparable to the peaks of the dot-com bubble, as well as diagrams of relationships between large firms that suggested circular financing within the AI ecosystem. The tone was interpreted as criticism of an investment cycle and some analysts have linked it to debates about the limits of AI adoption and its externalities: critique of an investment cycle.
After the information circulated, Palantir's share price fell by around 8-10%. despite raising its annual forecasts, while Nvidia fell back approximately 2-3%.Technology indices moved lower, and the downward trend spread to other markets. Meanwhile, Nvidia has accumulated gains of nearly 50% so far this year and already exceeds $5 trillion in market capitalization., and Palantir is advancing around 170% in the last twelve months. Demanding valuations and highly concentrated returns fuel the discussion.
Bubble or solid growth?
There is no consensus among fund managers and investment banks. Some voices, such as Ray Dalio's, They have warned of bubble-like behavior in certain market segmentsHowever, they note that these episodes tend to fizzle out when monetary policy tightens further. Other firms, including Goldman Sachs and Citi, They believe the AI cycle is supported more by cash flow and profits than by credit or pure speculation., and that the multiples, although high, They are better justified than they were in the late nineties.
Directional bet or hedging?
It's worth highlighting a technical detail in the 13F reports: these reports include long positions, but they don't specify whether the put options are used to hedge other exposures, nor do they provide strike prices or expiration dates. In previous quarters, Scion clarified that its put options could be used to hedge long positions; the most recent document contains no equivalent note. Without that information, it's impossible to know whether Burry is covering his bases or looking for an explicit drop..
The European and Spanish angle
For investors in Spain and Europe, the picture goes beyond just two US stocks. The region is exposed to the AI value chain through manufacturers and suppliers like ASML, and via UCITS funds and ETFs that track technology indices. Whether the AI cycle overheats or cools down, Local portfolios could feel it through valuation and flowsThat's why the movements of such closely followed figures as Burry are scrutinized.
Scion's background and the time factor
This is not the first time Burry has taken a stand against Nvidia. Nor does it issue warnings that are slow to materialize. In 2023 and 2024, it adopted broad hedges on indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, which didn't always work in its favor, and on other occasions, it was right after waiting patiently. In options trading, timing is key: if the market is slow to turn, The premium can erode before the movement arrives.
Between skepticism about a possible bubble and the sustainable growth thesis, the Scion movement It puts AI back at the center of the boardWith significant puts in Palantir and Nvidia, selective calls in more traditional sectors, and a cautious tone, Burry forces us to better measure our enthusiasm.This is especially true for European portfolios exposed to technology through indices or providers. Without publicly available data on strike prices and expirations, the definitive interpretation remains open: tactical hedging or a frontal assault on the AI rally.
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