- Paʻa ʻo Scion Asset Management i kahi $ 1.100 biliona ma Palantir a me Nvidia
- Hoʻopau ka luna i ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa e pili ana i kahi puʻupuʻu AI ma hope o nā memo cryptic ma X
- ʻAʻole ʻae ka 13F iā mākou e ʻike inā he pā a i ʻole ka bet kuhikuhi
- ʻEulopa a me Sepania, i hōʻike ʻia ma o nā hui ʻenehana nui, nā ETF a me nā mea hoʻolako e like me ASML
El mea hoʻopukapuka ʻo Michael Burry, kaulana no ka wānana i ka pilikia 2008, ua ʻike hou ʻia me kahi pāʻani e kau hou ana i ke kukui ma luna o ka ʻikeʻike. Ma kāna mau kamaʻilio hou loa i ka US regulator, kāna paʻa Ua hoʻolaha ʻo Scion Asset Management i kahi kūlana bearish koʻikoʻi ma nā inoa ʻelua mai ka AI boomUa hoʻomaka hou kēia i ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa e pili ana i ka ʻike ʻana o ka ʻāpana i kahi ʻōpala. Ma nā kūʻai kūʻai kālā ʻEulopa a ma waena o nā mea mālama kālā Sepania, ʻAʻole i ʻike ʻia ka hopena o kēia neʻe..
Hele mai ka neʻe ʻana ma hope o ka hoʻi ʻana i ka ʻoihana pūnaewele kahi i hōʻike ai ʻo Burry, i ka wā e wela ai ka mākeke, i kekahi manawa ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi e hoʻi i hope. Me ka haʻi ʻole ʻana i nā inoa kikoʻī, Ua kaʻana like ʻo ia i nā palapala kiʻi e pili ana i ka piʻi ʻana o ka hoʻolimalima kālā ʻenehana a me nā ala ala kālā i waena o nā mea pāʻani AI.Ua wehewehe ʻia kēia mau memo ma ke ʻano he enigmatic e kekahi mau mea hoʻolaha, ʻoiai ua hōʻoia ʻia ka ʻikepili mana i nā kūlana. ʻO ka hoʻonohonoho ʻana o nā hōʻailona lehulehu me nā kiʻi mai ka lā 13 o Pepeluali ua hoʻopau i nā bele hoʻāla..
He aha ka mea a Burry i hana ai?
Wahi a ka Puka 13F hou loa, ua kūʻai aku ʻo Scion Asset Management i nā koho koho ma Palantir a me Nvidia i ka pōʻaiapili o ka ʻāpana chip no nā huina noʻonoʻo ma kahi o $912,1 miliona a me $186,5 miliona. Ma ke ʻano o nā waiwai i lalo, ua like ka ʻike i hōʻike ʻia me ka ʻelima miliona mau ʻāpana o Palantir a me hoʻokahi miliona mau ʻāpana o Nvidia. ʻO kēia nā mea e loaʻa ai ka waiwai inā hāʻule nā kumukūʻai..
Ma kahi o kēia mau pā a i ʻole nā kūlana pōkole, ua lawe pū ʻo Scion i nā koho kelepona ma Pfizer a me Halliburton, a mālama i nā kūlana ma Lululemon, Molina Healthcare, Bruker, a me SLM. I nā hapaha i hala iho nei, ua pani ka waihona kālā i nā kālepa waiwai i nā hui e like me Alibaba, Estee Lauder, ASML, a me Regeneron. Hōʻike ka bias holoʻokoʻa i kahi kōpili pale a koho i waho o ka ʻāpana AI..
ʻO nā hōʻailona ma ka pāpili kaiaulu a me ka pōʻaiapili o ka paio
ʻO nā lā ma mua o ka hoʻouka kaua ʻana o Pepeluali 13, ua haʻi ʻo Burry i kahi manawa lōʻihi ma X e ʻōlelo aku ai e pili ana i ka pilikia o ka euphoria. Ua kaʻana like ʻo ia i nā pakuhi e hōʻike ana i ka piʻi ʻana o nā hoʻolimalima kālā ʻenehana US e like me nā kiʻekiʻe o ka dot-com bubble, a me nā kiʻi o nā pilina ma waena o nā ʻoihana nui i manaʻo i ka hoʻopukapuka kālā i loko o ka kaiaola AI. Ua unuhi ʻia ka leo e like me ka hoʻohewa ʻana i kahi pōʻai kālā a ua hoʻopili kekahi mau mea loiloi i nā hoʻopaʻapaʻa e pili ana i nā palena o ka hoʻokomo ʻana o AI a me kāna mau mea i waho. ka hoʻohewa ʻana i kahi pōʻai kālā.
Ma hope o ka hoʻolaha ʻia ʻana o ka ʻike, Ua hāʻule ke kumukūʻai o Palantir ma kahi o 8-10%. ʻoiai e hoʻokiʻekiʻe ana i kāna mau wānana makahiki, ʻoiai Ua hāʻule hou ʻo Nvidia ma kahi o 2-3%.Ua neʻe haʻahaʻa nā helu ʻenehana, a ua laha ke ʻano i lalo i nā mākeke ʻē aʻe. I kēia manawa, Ua hōʻiliʻili ʻo Nvidia i nā loaʻa ma kahi o 50% a hiki i kēia makahiki a ua ʻoi aku ma mua o $ 5 trillion ma ka mākeke mākeke.a Ke holomua nei ʻo Palantir ma kahi o 170% i nā mahina he ʻumikumamālua i hala. ʻO ke koi ʻana i nā loiloi a me nā hoʻihoʻi koʻikoʻi e hoʻolalelale i ke kūkākūkā.
ʻO ka hū a i ʻole ka ulu paʻa?
ʻAʻohe kuʻikahi ma waena o nā luna kālā a me nā panakō hoʻopukapuka. ʻO kekahi mau leo, e like me ko Ray Dalio, Ua aʻo aku lākou i ka hana e like me ka bubble i kekahi mau māhele mākekeEia nō naʻe, ʻike lākou i ka pau ʻana o kēia mau ʻāpana i ka wā e paʻa hou ai ke kulekele kālā. ʻO nā ʻoihana ʻē aʻe, me Goldman Sachs a me Citi, Manaʻo lākou ua kākoʻo ʻia ka pōʻai AI e ke kahe kālā a me ka loaʻa kālā ma mua o ka hōʻaiʻē a i ʻole ka manaʻo maʻemaʻe., a ʻo ka nui, ʻoiai ke kiʻekiʻe, Ua ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ko lākou ʻāpono ʻana ma mua o ko lākou mau makahiki he kanaiwa.
Pili kuhikuhi a i ʻole hedging?
He mea kūpono ke hōʻike ʻana i kahi kikoʻī ʻenehana i nā hōʻike 13F: aia kēia mau hōʻike i nā kūlana lōʻihi, akā ʻaʻole lākou e kuhikuhi inā hoʻohana ʻia nā koho put e pale i nā hōʻike ʻē aʻe, ʻaʻole lākou e hāʻawi i nā kumu kūʻai a i ʻole nā lā pau. I nā hapaha mua, ua wehewehe ʻo Scion e hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia kāna mau koho waiho e pale i nā kūlana lōʻihi; ʻaʻohe memo like ka palapala hou loa. Me ka ʻole o kēlā ʻike, ʻaʻole hiki ke ʻike inā uhi ʻo Burry i kāna mau waihona a ʻimi paha i kahi hāʻule kikoʻī..
ʻO ke kihi ʻEulopa a me Sepania
No nā mea hoʻopukapuka kālā ma Sepania a me ʻEulopa, ʻoi aku ke kiʻi ma mua o ʻelua mau waihona US. Hōʻike ʻia ka ʻāina i ke kaulahao waiwai AI ma o nā mea hana a me nā mea hoʻolako e like me ASML, a ma o nā kālā UCITS a me nā ETF e hahai ana i nā helu ʻenehana. Inā ʻoi aku ka wela a i ʻole ke anuanu o ka AI, Hiki ke ʻike i nā portfolios kūloko ma o ka loiloi a me nā kaheʻO ia ke kumu i nānā ʻia ai ka neʻe ʻana o nā kiʻi e like me Burry.
ʻO ka hope o Scion a me ke kumu manawa
ʻAʻole kēia ka manawa mua i kū ai ʻo Burry e kūʻē iā Nvidia. ʻAʻole hoʻi e hoʻopuka i nā ʻōlelo aʻo e lohi i ka hoʻokō ʻana. I ka makahiki 2023 a me 2024, ua hoʻohana ʻo ia i nā pā ākea e like me ka S&P 500 a me Nasdaq 100, ʻaʻole i hana mau i kāna makemake, a ma nā manawa ʻē aʻe, ua pololei ia ma hope o ke kali ʻana me ka hoʻomanawanui. Ma ke kālepa koho, ʻo ka manawa ke kī: inā lohi ka mākeke e huli, Hiki ke hoʻopau ke kumukūʻai ma mua o ka hiki ʻana mai o ka neʻe.
Ma waena o ka manaʻo kānalua e pili ana i kahi puʻupuʻu hiki a me ka thesis ulu hoʻomau, ka hana Scion Hoʻihoʻi ia iā AI ma ke kikowaena o ka papaMe nā mea nui i Palantir a me Nvidia, nā kelepona koho i nā ʻāpana kuʻuna, a me kahi leo makaʻala, Hoʻoikaika ʻo Burry iā mākou e ana maikaʻi i ko mākou hoihoi.He ʻoiaʻiʻo kēia no nā portfolios ʻEulopa i hōʻike ʻia i ka ʻenehana ma o nā kuhikuhi a i ʻole nā mea hoʻolako. Me ka ʻole o ka ʻikepili i loaʻa i ka lehulehu e pili ana i nā kumukūʻai a me ka pau ʻana, ua wehe ʻia ka wehewehe kikoʻī: ʻo ka tactical hedging a i ʻole ka hoʻouka kaua mua ma ka hui AI.
He kanaka ʻenehana wau i hoʻololi i kāna mau makemake "geek" i ʻoihana. Ua hoʻohana au ma mua o 10 mau makahiki o koʻu ola me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka ʻenehana ʻokiʻoki a me ka hoʻomaʻamaʻa ʻana i nā ʻano papahana āpau ma muli o ka ʻike maʻemaʻe. I kēia manawa ua loea wau i ka ʻenehana kamepiula a me nā pāʻani wikiō. ʻO kēia no ka mea ʻoi aku ma mua o 5 mau makahiki aʻu i kākau ai no nā pūnaewele like ʻole e pili ana i ka ʻenehana a me nā pāʻani wikiō, e hana ana i nā ʻatikala e ʻimi nei e hāʻawi iā ʻoe i ka ʻike āu e pono ai ma kahi ʻōlelo i hoʻomaopopo ʻia e nā mea a pau.
Inā he mau nīnau kāu, pili koʻu ʻike mai nā mea a pau e pili ana i ka ʻōnaehana hana Windows a me Android no nā kelepona paʻalima. A ʻo kaʻu hoʻohiki ʻana iā ʻoe, makemake mau wau e hoʻolilo i mau minuke a kōkua iā ʻoe e hoʻoholo i nā nīnau āu e loaʻa ai ma kēia ao pūnaewele.