Burry vs Nvidia: nkhondo yomwe imakayikira AI boom

Mkangano pakati Michael Burry ndi Nvidia Yakhala imodzi mwamitu yotsatiridwa kwambiri m'misika yapadziko lonse lapansi, makamaka ku Europe ndi Spain, komwe Ogulitsa ambiri akuyang'ana kukula kwa luntha lochita kupanga komanso ma semiconductors mokayikira.Woyang'anira thumba yemwe adatchuka chifukwa cholosera zavuto lanyumba ya 2008 wayambitsa chipongwe pagulu motsutsana ndi chimphona cha AI. kukayikira kuwerengera kwake komanso kuchita bwino kwa bizinesiyo zomwe zatengera pamwamba pa msika wogulitsa.

Kumbali ina, Nvidia akulimbana ndi dzino ndi misomali.Pogwiritsa ntchito zotsatira zake, mauthenga kwa akatswiri a Wall Street, ndi zonena kuchokera kwa oyang'anira ake, kampaniyo yatsutsa zonenazo. Nkhondoyi si yaumwini chabe: yakhala a chizindikiro cha mkangano woti ngati AI boom yaposachedwa ndikusintha kokhazikika kwa paradigm kapena kuwira kwaukadaulo kwatsopano. zomwe zingakhudze misika yaku Europe, kuchokera ku Frankfurt ndi Paris kupita ku Madrid.

Kodi Michael Burry akudzudzula chiyani za Nvidia?

Wogulitsa ndalama kumbuyo kwa "The Big Short" wakhala akupereka machenjezo angapo pa X ndi Substack yake yatsopano, komwe imateteza malingaliro omveka bwino a Nvidia komanso za intelligence intelligence in general. Pakati pa mfundo zomwe amabwereza nthawi zambiri, akuwonetsa nkhawa zake zomwe zimatchedwa "circularity" m'mapangano a AI komanso za kuwerengetsa ndalama zomwe, m'malingaliro ake, zimabisa phindu lenileni la ndalama zambiri.

Malinga ndi Burry, Chimodzi mwazofunikira zaposachedwa za Nvidia tchipisi zitha kukwezedwa. kudzera mu njira zopezera ndalama zomwe opereka ukadaulo akulu amatenga nawo gawo mwachindunji kapena mwanjira ina mu likulu kapena ntchito za makasitomala awo. Mwachitsanzo, mtundu wa mapangano omwe atchulidwa ndi omwe Nvidia amaika ndalama zambiri-motsatira mabiliyoni a madola-m'makampani a AI omwe amagwiritsanso ntchito ndalamazo kuti apange malo osungiramo data okhazikika pa Nvidia GPUs.

M'mauthenga ake, woyang'anira akutsutsa kuti dongosololi limakumbutsa zinthu zina zochokera ku dot-com bubble, kumene. Makampaniwa ankapereka ndalama komanso kuthandizana mpaka msika udataya chikhulupiriro pakuyerekeza kwakukula ndipo mitengo idatsika. Kwa osunga ndalama aku Europe, omwe adazolowera njira yosamala kwambiri pakuwongolera ndi kuyang'anira ma accounting, machenjezo amtunduwu samawonedwa.

Chimodzi mwazinthu zomwe Burry amayang'ana kwambiri ndi Malipiro otengera masheya komanso kugula kwakukulu kwa NvidiaWogulitsa ndalamayo akuyerekeza kuti chipukuta misozi pazosankha zamasheya ndi magawo oletsedwa chikadawononga eni ake mabiliyoni makumi ambiri a madola, ndikuchepetsa kwambiri zomwe amazitcha "phindu la eni." M'malingaliro ake, mapulogalamu obweza magawo ambiri akungothetsa vutoli, m'malo mobwezera ndalama kwa osunga ndalama.

Mfundo yosakhwima kwambiri: kutsika komanso kutha kwa tchipisi ta AI

Chimodzi mwazinthu zovuta kwambiri pamalingaliro a Burry ndi malingaliro ake liwiro lomwe tchipisi tapamwamba za AI zimataya phindu lazachumaWogulitsayo akuti mitundu yatsopano ya GPU ya Nvidia ndiyogwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zambiri ndipo imapereka chiwopsezo chachikulu chomwe chimapangitsa mibadwo yam'mbuyomu kuti isagwire ntchito mwachangu kuposa momwe makampani ambiri amawonera.

Mukuwunika kwake, Burry akulozera mwachindunji momwe makampani akuluakulu aukadaulo ndi opereka mtambo amapangira ma data awoMalinga ndi malingaliro ake, makampaniwa akuwonjezera moyo wothandiza wa zida - mwachitsanzo, kuyambira zaka zitatu mpaka zisanu kapena zisanu ndi chimodzi - kuti apititse patsogolo phindu kwakanthawi kochepa ndikulungamitsira ndalama za madola mabiliyoni m'magawo a GPU zomwe, kwenikweni, zitha kutha pakati pa 2026 ndi 2028.

Manejala akutsindika zimenezo “Kungoti chinthu chikugwiritsidwa ntchito sizitanthauza kuti chili ndi phindu”Mwa kuyankhula kwina, mfundo yakuti chip imakhalabe yokhazikitsidwa ndikugwira ntchito ku malo a data ku Ulaya kapena ku America sizikutanthauza kuti idzabweretsa kubwerera koyembekezeredwa poyerekeza ndi mbadwo watsopano wa hardware yomwe ilipo. Ngati zida zikuyenda bwino kwambiri pazachuma kuposa momwe ma tebulo otsika mtengo amasonyezera, makampani adzakakamizika kutengera kuwonongeka kwakukulu ndikusintha ma accounting mtsogolomo.

Njira iyi ikugwirizana ndi mantha omwe akukula m'misika: kuthekera kwakuti Zambiri za AI zikumangidwa mwachangu kwambiripansi pa lingaliro la kufuna pafupifupi kosatha. Ngakhale akuluakulu a makampani akuluakulu a zamakono, monga Satya Nadella ku Microsoft, avomereza kuti akhala osamala kuti apitirize kumanga malo opangira deta chifukwa cha chiopsezo chowononga ndalama zambiri m'badwo umodzi wa tchipisi ndi mphamvu ndi kuziziritsa zofunikira zomwe zidzasintha ndi kutulutsidwa kwa hardware.

Ku Europe, komwe ma telecom, mabanki akulu ndi magulu amakampani akuganizira zazachuma zazikulu mu luso la AI, machenjezo okhudza kutsika kwamitengo ndi kutha kwa ntchito. Izi zitha kuyambitsa kuwunikanso nthawi ya polojekiti komanso kukulitsa.makamaka m'misika yoyendetsedwa bwino monga gawo lazachuma kapena mphamvu, pomwe oyang'anira amawunika mosamala njira zowerengera ndalamazi.

Zotsutsa za Nvidia: memo ku Wall Street ndi chitetezo cha CUDA

Zomwe Nvidia adachita zinali zachangu. Poyang'anizana ndi kufalikira kwa zotsutsa za Burry, kampaniyo idatumiza memo yayitali kwa akatswiri a Wall Street momwe adayesera kutsutsa zonena zingapo za Burry. Chikalatacho, chomwe chidatsitsidwa m'manyuzipepala apadera atolankhani, chikuwunikiranso zomwe Burry adawerengera pa zogula ndi kubweza chipukuta misozi ndikuumirira kuti ziwerengero zake zikuphatikizapo zinthu monga misonkho yokhudzana ndi RSU zomwe zimakweza ndalama zenizeni zomwe zimaperekedwa kuti zigulitsidwe.

Pakadali pano, pakuwonetsa zotsatira zaposachedwa za kotala, kampaniyo idatenga mwayi kuteteza moyo wawo komanso mtengo wachuma wa ma GPU awoChief Financial Officer Colette Kress anatsindika kuti pulogalamu ya pulogalamu ya CUDA imakulitsa kwambiri moyo wa ma accelerator a Nvidia, chifukwa kusintha kosalekeza kwa pulogalamu ya pulogalamuyo kumawathandiza kuti apitirize kukulitsa kuthekera kwa tchipisi ta m'badwo wakale, monga ma A100 omwe adatumizidwa zaka zapitazo, zomwe kampaniyo imati ikupitilizabe kugwira ntchito pamitengo yayikulu yogwiritsira ntchito.

Lingaliro lapakati la Nvidia ndilotero Kugwirizana kwa CUDA ndi maziko akulu oyika Izi zimapangitsa mtengo wathunthu wa umwini wa mayankho awo kukhala okongola kwambiri poyerekeza ndi ma accelerator ena. Mwanjira iyi, ngakhale mibadwo yatsopano, yogwira ntchito bwino ikatuluka, makasitomala amatha kupitiliza kugwiritsa ntchito makina awo omwe ali kale kale pomwe akukweza pang'onopang'ono zida zawo, m'malo motaya zida zazikulu zonse nthawi imodzi.

Ofufuza monga Ben Reitzes a Melius Research adanena kuti kampaniyo yatha kuwonetsa kuti ndandanda za kuchepa kwamitengo yamakasitomala ake ambiri Sangakhale aukali monga momwe otsutsa amanenera, chifukwa cha chithandizo chopitilira pulogalamuyo. Nkhaniyi ndi yofunika makamaka kwa magulu akuluakulu aku Europe - kuchokera kwa omwe amapereka mtambo wakomweko kupita ku mabanki ndi makampani opanga mafakitale - omwe akuganiza zogulitsa zaka zambiri.

Ngakhale zili choncho, Burry akuwona kuti ndi "zopanda pake" kuti memo ya Nvidia imapereka khama kwambiri, m'malingaliro ake, kuti athetse mikangano yomwe sanaiukitse, monga kutsika kwa chuma cha Nvidia chokhazikika, kukumbukira izo. Kampaniyo kwenikweni ndi wopanga chip osati chimphona chopanga chomwe chili ndi zomera zazikulu pamasamba ake. Kwa wogulitsa ndalama, kuyankha uku kumangowonjezera malingaliro awo kuti kampaniyo ikuyesera kupeŵa mkangano waukulu wokhudza kuchepa kwa mabuku a makasitomala awo.

Burry imawirikiza pansi: amaika, Substack, ndi mzimu wa Cisco

M'malo mobwerera kumbuyo pambuyo pa kuyankha kwamakampani, Burry wasankha kuwirikiza kawiri motsutsana ndi NvidiaKupyolera mu kampani yake ya Scion Asset Management, adawonetsa kuti adakhala ndi maudindo afupikitsa pogwiritsa ntchito zosankha za Nvidia ndi Palantir, ndi mtengo wamtengo wapatali woposa madola biliyoni imodzi pamasiku ena, ngakhale kuti anali ndi mtengo wotsika kwambiri ku mbiri yake.

M'makalata ake atsopano olipidwa, "Cassandra Unchained", Burry amapereka gawo lalikulu la kusanthula kwake. zomwe amachitcha "AI Industrial complex"zomwe zingaphatikizepo opanga ma chip, nsanja zamapulogalamu, ndi opereka mtambo akuluakulu. Kumeneko, akuumirira kuti sakufanizira Nvidia ndi chinyengo chowerengera mabuku monga Enron, koma kwa Cisco kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 1990: kampani yeniyeni yokhala ndi luso loyenera, koma imodzi yomwe, malinga ndi mbiri yake ya mbiri yakale, inathandizira kumanga zomangamanga zambiri kuposa momwe msika ukanatha kuyamwa panthawiyo, pamapeto pake kugwa kwa mtengo wake wamtengo wapatali.

Kuphatikiza apo, manejala amakumbukira mbiri yake yobetcha motsutsana ndi mgwirizano. Kulondola kwake poyembekezera zovuta za subprime Zinamubweretsera kutchuka padziko lonse lapansi, koma alinso ndi ntchito yotsutsana kwambiri pambuyo pake, ndi machenjezo owopsa omwe sanakwaniritsidwe nthawi zonse ndikulephera ntchito, monga kubetcha kwake kotchuka motsutsana ndi Tesla kapena kutuluka kwake koyambirira kwa GameStop isanakhale "meme stock" chodabwitsa.

M'miyezi yaposachedwa, a Burry adatengerapo mwayi pakutuluka kwake pamalamulo okhwima - atachotsa kaundula wa kasamalidwe ka chuma ndi SEC - kulankhula ndi ufulu wochuluka pa social media komanso papulatifomu yake ya Substack. Kalata yake yolipira yolipirayo akuti yasonkhanitsa anthu masauzande ambiri munthawi yochepa kwambiri, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti ndemanga yake ikhale yofunika kuganizira za msika, kuphatikiza pakati pa osunga ndalama ku Europe omwe amatsatira kwambiri mamenejala akuluakulu aku US.

Kukangana kwapagulu sikungopezeka kwa Nvidia. Burry adalimbikira kusinthana kwa ziganizo ndi akuluakulu ochokera kumakampani ena a AIMonga mkulu wa Palantir Alex Karp, yemwe adamudzudzula chifukwa chosamvetsetsa zolemba za SEC za 13F pambuyo pa Karp adatcha mabetcha ake a bearish "misala yonse" pawailesi yakanema. Mikangano iyi ikuwonetsa kusagwirizana komwe kulipo: kwa oyang'anira ena, aliyense amene amafunsa nkhani ya AI akubwerera kumbuyo; kwa a Burry ndi ena okayikira, njira yachikale ya euphoria imadzibwereza yokha.

Zokhudza misika ndi zomwe zingachitike ku Europe

Phokoso lopangidwa ndi kulimbana kwa Burry vs Nvidia Izi zakhudza kale mtengo wamakampani.Ngakhale mtengo wamasheya udachulukiranso pambuyo pa zotsatira zowoneka bwino za kotala, wakumananso ndi kuwongolera kwa manambala awiri kuchokera pakukwera kwaposachedwa pakati pa chenjezo lokulirapo lozungulira gawo la AI. Mtengo wamtengo wa Nvidia ukatsika kwambiri, sizimatero zokha: zimakokera pansi ma index ndi masheya ena aukadaulo okhudzana ndi nkhani yofananira.

Kwa misika yaku Europe, komwe oyang'anira ndalama ambiri ali nawo kuwonetseredwa kwakukulu kosalunjika kumayendedwe a AI Kudera lonse la Nasdaq, ma ETF a magawo, ndi makampani am'deralo kapena makampani amtambo, chizindikiro chilichonse cha kusakhazikika kwa mtsogoleri wosatsutsika chimawonedwa ndi nkhawa. Kusintha kwakukulu kwamalingaliro okhudzana ndi Nvidia kumatha kusandulika kukhala kusakhazikika kwamakampani aku Europe omwe amapereka zida, kuyang'anira malo opangira data, kapena kupanga mapulogalamu omwe amadalira zomangamanga za GPU.

Mtsutso wa mapangano ozungulira ndalama ndi kutsika kwa chip umagwirizananso ndi zofunikira za owongolera aku Europemwamwambo okhwimitsa zinthu kwambiri potengera kuwerengera ndalama komanso kuyika pachiwopsezo. Ngati lingaliro loti bizinesiyo ikukulitsa nthawi yobweza ndalama mopitilira muyeso kapena kudalira njira zopezera ndalama zosawoneka bwino zikadayenera kulimba, kuwunika kwakukulu pakuloleza mapulojekiti akuluakulu a AI mkati mwa EU sikungalephereke.

Panthawi imodzimodziyo, kulimbanaku kumapereka phunziro lothandiza kwa osunga ndalama ku Spain: kupyola phokoso lazofalitsa, zotsutsana za Burry ndi mayankho a Nvidia amakakamiza osunga ndalama kuti apite. kuyang'anitsitsa maziko a kampani iliyonse.Kuchokera pamapangidwe amalipiro awo otengera katundu wawo ku luso lenileni la makasitomala awo kuti apindule ndi kugula zinthu zambiri za hardware, kusanthula kwamtunduwu kungakhale kofunikira kwa ma portfolio omwe amaphatikiza masheya aku US ndi makampani akuluakulu aukadaulo aku Europe, kupanga kusiyana pakati pa kutsatira zomwe zikuchitika ndikumanga malo anzeru.

Kaya masomphenya a Burry atsimikiziridwa kapena Nvidia akuphatikiza udindo wake monga wopambana wamkulu wa nthawi ya AI, mlanduwu ukuwonetsa momwe Wojambula m'modzi yekha amatha kukhudza nkhani ya msikaKukulitsidwa ndi chikhalidwe cha anthu, makalata olipidwa, ndi zokambirana zapagulu ndi akuluakulu a makampani otchulidwa, nkhani ya Burry vs. Nvidia imakhala chikumbutso chakuti luso lamakono lamakono ndi ndondomeko ya zachuma ziyenera kuyendera limodzi ngati chidwi chiyenera kuletsedwa kuti chisakhale vuto kwa osunga ndalama ndi olamulira kumbali zonse za Atlantic. M'malo omwe Europe ikufuna malo ake mumpikisano wopangira nzeru, nkhani ya Burry imakhala ngati chikumbutso kuti ukadaulo wotsogola komanso kuwongolera zachuma ziyenera kuyendera limodzi ngati chidwi chiyenera kupewedwa, pamapeto pake kukhala vuto kwa osunga ndalama ndi owongolera mbali zonse za Atlantic.

Nkhani yowonjezera:

Mwamuna yemwe adaneneratu zavuto lazachuma la 2008 tsopano akubetcha motsutsana ndi AI: mamiliyoni ambiri amayika motsutsana ndi Nvidia ndi Palantir.

Alberto navarro

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