Burry vs Nvidia: iyo hondo inodana mubvunzo iyo AI boom

Kusawirirana pakati Michael Burry naNvidia Yakave imwe yeinonyanya kuteedzerwa misoro mumisika yepasirese, ichinyanya kutariswa muEurope neSpain, uko Vazhinji vanoisa mari vari kutarisa kuwedzera kwehungwaru hwekugadzira uye semiconductors nekufungira.Maneja wehomwe akasimuka kuita mukurumbira wekufanotaura dambudziko remumba ra2008 akatanga kurwisa veruzhinji achipokana neAI chip hofori. kubvunza kukosha kwayo uye kunaka kwebhizinesi iyo yakatora iyo kumusoro kwemusika wemari.

Kune rumwe rutivi, Nvidia ari kurwisa zino nembambo.Ichishandisa marekodhi ayo, mameseji kuWall Street analysts, uye zvirevo kubva kune manejimendi ayo, kambani yakaramba kupomera mhosva. Hondo haisi yemunhu chete: yave a chiratidzo chegakava pamusoro pekuti ikozvino AI boom ndeye yakagadzikana paradigm shanduko kana nyowani tekinoroji bubble. izvo zvinogona kukanganisa misika yeEurope, kubva kuFrankfurt neParis kuenda kuMadrid.

Chii icho Michael Burry ari kunyatsoshoropodza nezveNvidia?

Muridzi ari kuseri kwe "The Big Short" anga achiburitsa nhevedzano yeyambiro paX uye yake itsva Substack, uko. inodzivirira yakajeka bearish thesis paNvidia uye nezve artificial intelligence industry in general. Pakati pezvaanodzokorora kazhinji, anosimbisa kushushikana kwake pamusoro pezvinonzi "circularity" muzvibvumirano zveAI uye nezve accounting iyo, mumaonero ake, iri kuvhara mhindu chaiyo yekudyara kwakawanda.

Maererano naBurry, Chikamu chezvino kudiwa kweNvidia machipi chinogona kukwidziridzwa. kuburikidza nehurongwa hwemari umo vanopa tekinoroji hombe vanotora chikamu zvakananga kana zvisina kunanga muhukuru kana mapurojekiti evatengi vavo. Semuenzaniso, mhando yezvibvumirano yataurwa yanga iri iyo iyo Nvidia inodyara mari yakawanda-muhurongwa hwemakumi emabhiriyoni emadhora-mumakambani eAI ayo, anoshandisa mari iyoyo kuvaka nzvimbo dzedata dzakangobva paNvidia GPUs chete.

Mumashoko ake, maneja anopokana kuti iyi pateni inoyeuchidza zvimwe zvimiro kubva kudot-com bubble, uko. Makambani aipa mari uye aitsigirana kusvikira musika warasikirwa nekutenda mukukura kwekufungidzira uye mitengo yakaderera. Kune vanoisa mari muEurope, vakajaira imwe nzira yekuchenjerera yekutonga nekutarisa accounting, idzi mhando dzeyambiro hadzisi kucherechedzwa.

Imwe yekutarisa kwaBurry ndeye stock-based compensation uye Nvidia's hombe buybacksMuridzi anofungidzira kuti muripo wezvisarudzo zvemasheya uye zvikamu zvakaganhurirwa zvaizoita kuti vagovani vadyire makumi emabhiriyoni emadhora, vachicheka zvakanyanya izvo zvaanodaidza kuti "mhindu yemuridzi." Sekuona kwake, zvirongwa zvakakura zvekutenga zvekudzorera zviri kungogadzirisa kuderedzwa uku, pane kudzosera mari kune vanoisa mari.

Iyo yakanyanya kutetepa poindi: kuderera uye kupera simba kweAI chips

Chimwe chezvinhu zvinonyanya kuoma zveBurry's thesis maonero ake iyo yekumhanyisa iyo yakakwirira-yekupedzisira AI chips inorasikirwa nehupfumi kukoshaMuridzi anopokana kuti maGPU matsva eNvidia ane simba rakawanda uye anopa kusvetuka kwakakura mukuita zvekuti vanoita kuti zvizvarwa zvakapfuura zvisashande nekukurumidza kupfuura zvirevo zvemari zvemakambani mazhinji zvinoratidzira.

Mukuongorora kwake, Burry anonongedzera kuna nzira iyo makambani makuru etekinoroji uye vanopa makore vanogadzirisa nzvimbo dzavo dzedataZvinoenderana nedzidziso yake, makambani aya anenge achiwedzera hupenyu hunobatsira hwekushandisa - semuenzaniso, kubva pamakore matatu kusvika mashanu kana matanhatu - kuvandudza zvisirizvo purofiti yenguva pfupi uye kururamisa mari yemamiriyoni emadhora muGPU-yakavakirwa zvivakwa izvo, chokwadi, zvinogona kusashanda pakati pa2026 na2028.

Mutungamiriri anosimbisa izvozvo “Nekuti chimwe chinhu chinoshandiswa hazvireve kuti chinobatsira”Mune mamwe mazwi, chokwadi chekuti chip chinoramba chakaiswa uye chichishanda muEuropean kana America data center hazvireve kuti ichaunza kudzoka kunotarisirwa kana ichienzaniswa nechizvarwa chitsva chehardware chiripo. Kana michina ikadzikisirwa hupfumi nekukasira kupfuura zvinoratidzwa nematafura, makambani anomanikidzwa kutora kurasikirwa kukuru kwekukanganisa uye kugadzirisa accounting mune ramangwana.

Iyi nzira inowirirana nekutya kuri kukura mumisika: mukana wekuti yakawandisa AI zvivakwa zviri kuvakwa nekukurumidzapasi pekufungidzira kunenge kusingagumi kudiwa. Kunyangwe vatungamiriri vemakambani makuru etekinoroji, akadai saSatya Nadella kuMicrosoft, vakabvuma kuti vanga vachingwarira kuenderera mberi nekuvaka nzvimbo dzedhata nekuda kwenjodzi yekuisa mari muchizvarwa chimwe chete chemachipisi ane simba uye kutonhora zvinodiwa izvo zvichachinja nekutevera kuburitswa kwehardware.

KuEurope, uko akati wandei nhare, mabhanga makuru uye mapoka emaindasitiri ari kufunga nezvekudyara kukuru muAI kugona, yambiro nezve kuderera uye kupera simba. Izvi zvinogona kutungamirira kuongororo yenguva dzeprojekiti uye kuwedzera.kunyanya mumisika inodzorwa yakaita semapato emari kana simba, uko vatariri vanotarisisa aya maitiro e accounting.

Nvidia's counteroffensive: memo kuWall Street uye kudzivirira kweCUDA

Kuita kwaNvidia kwakakurumidza. Yakatarisana nekuwedzera kuparadzirwa kwekushoropodzwa kwaBurry, kambani yakatumira memo refu kune vaongorori veWall Street umo akaedza kuramba akati wandei zvakataurwa naBurry. Gwaro iri, rakaburitswa kune vezvenhau vane hunyanzvi, rinoongorora maverengero aBurry pakutenga uye muripo wemasheya uye rinosimbirira kuti zvimwe zvenhamba dzake zvinosanganisira zvinhu — zvakaita semimwe mitero ine chekuita neRSU — inokwidza mari chaiyo inopihwa kutenga.

Zvichakadaro, panguva yekupedzisira kwekota mhedzisiro mharidzo, femu yakatora mukana kuchengetedza hupenyu uye kukosha kwehupfumi kweGPU dzavoChief Financial Officer Colette Kress akasimbisa kuti iyo CUDA software platform inowedzera zvakanyanya hupenyu hweNvidia's accelerators, sezvo kuvandudzwa nguva dzose kune software stack kuvabvumira kuti vaenderere mberi nekuwedzera kugona kwechikuru chechizvarwa machipisi, senge maA100s akatumirwa makore apfuura, ayo kambani inoti inoramba ichishanda nemitengo yakakwira yekushandiswa.

Pfungwa yepakati yaNvidia ndeyekuti CUDA's kuenderana nehombe yakaiswa base Izvi zvinoita kuti mutengo wakazara wevaridzi vezvigadziriso zvavo uwedzere kutaridzika kana uchienzaniswa nemamwe accelerator. Nenzira iyi, kunyangwe zvizvarwa zvitsva, zvinoshanda zvakanyanya zvichibuda, vatengi vanogona kuenderera mberi vachishandisa masisitimu avo atove amortized vachiri kuvandudza zvishoma nezvishoma zvivakwa zvavo, pane kuti varase mavhoriyamu makuru ehardware kamwechete.

Vaongorori vakaita saBen Reitzes weMelius Research vakaratidza kuti kambani iyi yakakwanisa kuratidza kuti kuderera kwezvirongwa zvevazhinji vevatengi vayo vakakura Ivo vaisazoita zvehasha sezvinoratidzwa nevatsoropodzi, nekuda kwerutsigiro rwurikuenderera mberi rwesoftware. Rondedzero iyi inonyanya kukosha kumapoka makuru eEurope - kubva kune vanopa makore emuno kusvika kumabhanga nemakambani emaindasitiri - ari kufunga nezvekudyara kwemakore mazhinji.

Kunyange zvakadaro, Burry anoona se "zvisina musoro" kuti memo yaNvidia inopa simba rakawanda, mumaonero ake, kurwisana nemakakatanwa ayo asina kusimudza, zvakadai sekuderera kweNvidia pachake yakagadziriswa pfuma, achiyeuka izvozvo. Iyo kambani inonyanya kugadzira chip uye kwete hofori yekugadzira ine zvidyarwa zvakakura pabharanzi rayo. Kune investor, mhinduro iyi inongosimbisa maonero avo ekuti kambani iri kuyedza kunzvenga gakava repakati pamusoro pekuderera kwemabhuku evatengi vayo.

Burry zvakapetwa kaviri pasi: anoisa, Substack, uye mweya weCisco

Kure nekudzokera pasi mushure memhinduro yekambani, Burry afunga yakapetwa kaviri pasi paNvidiaKuburikidza nekambani yake Scion Asset Management, akaburitsa pachena kuti akabata zvinzvimbo zvipfupi achishandisa kuisa sarudzo paNvidia nePalantir, aine kukosha kwakabatana kunodarika bhiriyoni imwe yemadhora pane mamwe mazuva, kunyangwe aine mutengo wakaderera wakananga kune yake portfolio.

Mutsamba yake nyowani yakabhadharwa, "Cassandra Unchained", Burry anopa chikamu chakakosha chekuongorora kwake chaanodaidza kuti "AI industrial complex"izvo zvingasanganisira vanogadzira chip, mapuratifomu esoftware, uye makuru vanopa makore. Ikoko, anosimbirira kuti haasi kuenzanisa Nvidia nehutsotsi hwekuverenga mabhuku seEnron, asi kuCisco mukupera kwema1990: kambani chaiyo ine teknolojia yakakodzera, asi imwe iyo, maererano nemaonero ake ezvakaitika kare, yakabatsira pakuvaka zvivako zvakawanda kupfuura izvo misika yaigona kutora panguva iyoyo, pakupedzisira zvichiita kuparara kwemutengo wayo wemari.

Uyezve, maneja anoyeuka nhoroondo yake yekubheja achipesana nekubvumirana. Kururama kwake mukutarisira dambudziko re subprime Zvakamuunzira mukurumbira wepasirese, asi zvakare ane rimwe basa rine gakava rakazotevera, aine yambiro dzakaipisisa dzisina kugara dzichiita uye dzakakundikana maoparesheni, sekubheja kwake kwakakurumbira achipokana naTesla kana kubuda kwake kwekutanga kubva kuGameStop isati yaita "meme stock" chiitiko.

Mumwedzi ichangopfuura, Burry akatora mukana wekubuda kwake kubva kune yakaomesesa kudzora hurongwa - mushure mekubvisa registration maneja wake weasset neSEC- kuenda. kutaura norusununguko rwakawanda pasocial media uye pane yake Substack papuratifomu. Tsamba yake yekunyorera yakabhadharwa inonzi yakaunganidza makumi ezviuru zvevateveri munguva pfupi pfupi, zvichiita kuti tsananguro yake ive chinhu chekufunga nezve misika, kusanganisira pakati pevanoita mari veEuropean vanonyatsotevera mamaneja makuru eUS homwe.

Iyo yeruzhinji gakava haina kugumira kuNvidia. Burry akaramba kuchinjana kwezvirevo nevakuru kubva kune mamwe makambani eAIZvakadai saPalantir CEO Alex Karp, waakatsoropodza nekusanzwisisa SEC's 13F filings mushure mekunge Karp adaidza mabheti ake ebearish "kupenga kuzere" paterevhizheni. Kukakavadzana uku kunoratidza iko zvino polarization: kune vamwe vatungamiriri, chero munhu anobvunza nhoroondo yeAI ari kusara kumashure; kuna Burry nevamwe vanopokana, chimiro chekare chepamusoro-euphoria chiri kuzvidzokorora.

Kukanganisa pamisika uye zvinogona kuitika muEurope

Ruzha rwakagadzirwa neBurry vs Nvidia kutarisana Izvi zvatove nekukanganisa pamutengo wemasheya wekambani.Kunyangwe iyo mutengo wemasheya wakawedzera mushure mezvibodzwa zvekota, zvakare yakatambura kugadziridzwa kwemadhiji maviri kubva munguva pfupi yapfuura pakati pekuchenjerera kuri kukura kwakatenderedza chikamu cheAI. Kana Nvidia's stock mutengo wadonha zvakanyanya, hazviite wega: inokwevera pasi indices uye mamwe matekinoroji ematekinoroji ane hukama neiyo yakafanana kukura rondedzero.

Kune misika yeEurope, uko kune mamaneja mazhinji ehomwe yakakwira isina kunanga kuratidzwa kune AI kutenderera Pakati peNasdaq, chikamu cheETFs, uye semiconductor emunharaunda kana makambani emakore, chero chiratidzo chekusagadzikana kune asingapokane mutungamiriri weindasitiri anotariswa nekunetsekana. Shanduko yakapinza yemanzwiro maererano neNvidia inogona kududzira mukusagadzikana kumakambani eEurope anopa michina, kutonga nzvimbo dzedata, kana kugadzira software inovimba neGPU zvivakwa.

Iyo gakava pamusoro pezvibvumirano zvekutenderera mari uye chip depreciation inobatanawo ne zvakakosha zveEuropean regulatorszvagara zvakaomesesa maererano ne accounting transparency uye risk concentration. Kana fungidziro yekuti indasitiri iri kuwedzera zvakanyanya nguva yeamortization kana kuvimba neopaque hurongwa hwemari hwaifanira kusimba, kuongororwa kukuru kana kubvumidza mapurojekiti makuru ekudyara eAI mukati meEU hakwaigona kubviswa.

Panguva imwecheteyo, kutarisana kunopa chidzidzo chinobatsira kune mumwe munhu anoisa mari muSpain: kunze kweruzha rwenhau, nharo dzaBurry uye mhinduro dzaNvidia dzinomanikidza vatengesi kunyatsoongorora nheyo dzekambani imwe neimwe.Kubva pachimiro chemuripo wavo westock-based kune kugona kwevatengi vavo kuita purofiti kubva mukutenga zvinhu zvakawanda zvehardware, mhando yekuongorora iyi inogona kuve yakakosha kumapotifolio anosanganisa masheya eUS nemakambani makuru ehunyanzvi eEuropean, zvichiita mutsauko pakati pekutevera maitiro uye kuvaka imwe nzvimbo ine hungwaru.

Kunyangwe chiono chaBurry chakasimbiswa kana kuti Nvidia inosanganisa basa rayo semukundi mukuru wenguva yeAI, nyaya inoratidza kuti sei. Imwe media media inogona kukanganisa rondedzero yemusikaYakasimbiswa nemagariro evanhu, mabhuku ezvinyorwa zvakabhadharwa, uye nharo dzevanhu nevatungamiri vemakambani akanyorwa, nyaya yeBurry vs. Nvidia inoshanda sechiyeuchidzo chokuti teknolojia yekucheka-kumucheto uye kurangwa kwemari kunofanira kufambidzana kana kushingaira kuchizodziviswa kuva dambudziko kune vatengesi nevatongi kumativi ose eAtlantic. Mumamiriro ezvinhu apo Europe iri kutsvaga nzvimbo yayo mujaho rehungwaru hwekugadzira, nyaya yaBurry inoshanda sechiyeuchidzo chekuti tekinoroji yekucheka-kumucheto uye kurangwa kwemari kunofanirwa kufambidzana kana kushingairira kuchizodziviswa, rinozopedzisira rava dambudziko kune vanoisa mari nevanodzora kumativi ese eAtlantic.

Nyaya inoenderana:

Murume akafanotaura nezvedambudziko rezvemari ra2008 iye zvino ari kubheja achipesana neAI: mamirioni emadhora anoisa Nvidia naPalantir.

Alberto navarro

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