- Scion Asset Management inobata mari inosvika bhiriyoni imwe chete yemadhora muPalantir neNvidia
- Maneja anopisa gakava pamusoro peiyo AI bubble mushure memeseji yakavanzika paX
- Iyo 13F haitibvumidze kuziva kana iyo inoisa iri ruzhowa kana bheti inotungamira
- Europe neSpain, zvakafumurwa kuburikidza nemakambani makuru etekinoroji, ETFs uye vanopa vakaita seASML
El mutengesi Michael Burry, inozivikanwa nekufanotaura nezvedambudziko ra2008, ine akaonekwa zvakare nemutambo unoisa zvakare kutarisisa pane ungwaru hwekugadzira. Mukutaurirana kwazvino kuUS regulator, femu yayo Scion Asset Management yakazivisa yakakosha bhiza chinzvimbo pamazita maviri eiyo iconic kubva kuAI boomIzvi zvadzoreredza gakava rekuti chikamu ichi chiri kusangana nebubble here. PaEuropean stock exchanges uye pakati peSpanish savers, Zvinorehwa nesangano iri hazvina kumboonekwa..
Danho iri rinouya mushure mekudzoka kumasocial media umo Burry akataura kuti, kana musika wapisa, dzimwe nguva zvakanaka kudzokera kumashure. Pasina kutaura mazita chaiwo, Akagovanisa machati pakuwedzera kwekushandisa tekinoroji mari uye nzira dzinogona kuita mari pakati pevatambi vakuru veAI.Aya mameseji akatsanangurwa seasinganzwisisike nemamwe nhepfenyuro, nepo data yepamutemo yakasimbisa zvinzvimbo. Iko kurongeka kwezviratidzo zveveruzhinji nenhamba kubva munaKukadzi 13 yakamisa mabhero..
Chii chaizvo chakaitwa naBurry?
Zvinoenderana neiyo ichangoburwa Fomu 13F, Scion Asset Management yakatenga kuisa sarudzo paPalantir neNvidia mumamiriro e chip sector pamari inosvika madhora mazana mapfumbamwe nemakumi mapfumbamwe nemaviri emamiriyoni emadhora nemadhora mazana mashanu nemakumi mapfumbamwe nemashanu, zvichiteerana. Panyaya yemidziyo yepasi, kuratidzwa kwakataurwa kwakaenzana nemamiriyoni mashanu emasheya ePalantir uye miriyoni migove yeNvidia. Aya ndiwo anoisa anowana kukosha kana mitengo yadonha..
Padivi pemaheji aya kana zvinzvimbo zvipfupi, Scion yatorawo sarudzo dzekufona muPfizer neHalliburton, uye inochengetedza zvinzvimbo muLululemon, Molina Healthcare, Bruker, uye SLM. Muzvikamu zvenguva pfupi yapfuura, homwe iyi yakavhara kutengeserana kunobatsira mumakambani akaita seAlibaba, Estée Lauder, ASML, uye Regeneron. Iyo yakazara bias inoratidza inodzivirira uye yakasarudzika portfolio kunze kweiyo yakakosha AI chikamu..
Zviratidzo pasocial media uye mamiriro egakava
Mazuva mashoma Kukadzi 13 kurwiswa, Burry akatyora kunyarara kwenguva refu muX kuti ayambire nezve njodzi yekufara. Akagovera machati anoratidza kuwedzera kweUS tech capital expenditure inofananidzwa nepamusoro peiyo dot-com bubble, pamwe nemadhayagiramu ehukama pakati pemafemu makuru aikurudzira kutenderera kwemari mukati meAI ecosystem. Matauriro akadudzirwa sekushoropodza kutenderera kwekudyara uye vamwe vaongorori vakaibatanidza nemakakatanwa pamusoro pemiganhu yekutorwa kweAI uye nekunze kwayo: critique yekutenderera kwekudyara.
Mushure mekunge ruzivo rwafamba, Mutengo wePalantir wakadonha ne8-10%. pasinei nekusimudza fungidziro dzayo dzepagore, nepo Nvidia akadonha kumashure angangoita 2-3%.Tekinoroji indices yakadzikira, uye kudzikira kwacho kwakapararira kune mamwe misika. Zvichakadaro, Nvidia yakaunganidza pfuma inosvika makumi mashanu muzana kusvika zvino gore rino uye yatopfuura madhora mazana mashanu emadhora pamusika capitalization.uye Palantir iri kufambira mberi inosvika 170% mumwedzi gumi nembiri yapfuura. Kuda kukoshesa uye kudzoserwa kwakanyanya kunopisa hurukuro.
Bubble kana kukura kwakasimba?
Iko hakuna kubvumirana pakati pevakuru vehomwe uye mabhanga ekudyara. Mamwe manzwi, akadai saRay Dalio, Vakayambira nezve hunhu hwakaita sebubble mune zvimwe zvikamu zvemusikaNekudaro, vanocherekedza kuti zvikamu izvi zvinowanzoita kupera simba kana mutemo wemari wawedzera kusimba. Mamwe mafemu, anosanganisira Goldman Sachs neCiti, Ivo vanotenda iyo AI kutenderera inotsigirwa zvakanyanya nekuyerera kwemari uye purofiti pane nechikwereti kana kufungidzira kwakachena., uye kuti kuwanda, kunyange kwakakwirira, Vanopembedzwa zviri nani pane zvavakanga vaitwa mukupera kwamakore mapfumbamwe.
Directional kubheja kana hedging?
Zvakakodzera kuburitsa ruzivo rwehunyanzvi mumishumo ye13F: iyi mishumo inosanganisira nzvimbo refu, asi haitsanangure kana sarudzo dzekuisa dzinoshandiswa kuvharidzira zvimwe zvinoratidzwa, kana kupa mitengo yekuramwa kana mazuva ekupera. Munzvimbo dzakapfuura, Scion yakajekesa kuti sarudzo dzayo dzekuisa dzinogona kushandiswa kuvhara nzvimbo refu; gwaro richangoburwa harina chinyorwa chakaenzana. Pasina ruzivo irworwo, hazvigoneke kuziva kuti Burry ari kuvhara zvigadziko zvake here kana kutsvaga donhodzo rakajeka..
Iyo yeEuropean neSpanish angle
Kune vanoisa mari muSpain neEurope, mufananidzo unoenda kupfuura masheya maviri eUS chete. Dunhu rinoratidzwa kuAI kukosha kweketani kuburikidza nevagadziri uye vatengesi vakaita seASML, uye kuburikidza neUCITS mari uye maETF anoteedzera indices tekinoroji. Kunyangwe iyo AI kutenderera kunopisa kana kutonhora pasi, Mapotfolio emunharaunda aikwanisa kuzvinzwa kuburikidza nekukosha uye kuyereraNdosaka mafambiro enhamba dzakanyatsotevedzwa seBurry dzichiongororwa.
Scion kumashure uye iyo nguva factor
Aka hakasi kekutanga Burry kutora nhanho achipokana naNvidia. Uyewo haripi nyevero dzinononoka kuitika. Muna 2023 na2024, yakagamuchira hedges yakafara pane indices seS&P 500 neNasdaq 100, iyo yaisagara ichishanda mukufarira kwayo, uye pane dzimwe nguva, yaive mushure mekumirira nemoyo murefu. Mukutengesa sarudzo, nguva ndiyo yakakosha: kana musika uchinonoka kutendeuka, Iyo premium inogona kukanganisa kufamba kusati kwasvika.
Entre el kusava nechokwadi nezve bubble rinogona kuitika uye thesis yekukura kwakasimba, sangano reScion Inoisa AI kumashure pakati pebhodhiNekuisa kwakakosha muPalantir neNvidia, mafoni ekusarudza mune mamwe echinyakare zvikamu, uye inzwi rekuchenjerera, Burry inotimanikidza kuyera zvirinani kufarira kwedu.Izvi ndezvechokwadi kunyanya kuEuropean portfolios yakafumurwa kune tekinoroji kuburikidza nemaindices kana vanopa. Pasina dhata rinowanikwa pachena pamitengo yekurova uye kupera, dudziro yechokwadi inoramba yakavhurika: tactical hedging kana kurwisa kwepamberi paAI rally.
Ini ndiri anofarira tekinoroji akashandura zvaanofarira zve "geek" kuita basa. Ndapedza makore anopfuura gumi ehupenyu hwangu ndichishandisa tekinoroji yekucheka-kumucheto uye kutamba nemhando dzese dzezvirongwa kunze kwekuda kuziva. Iye zvino ndava nyanzvi mune zvekombiyuta uye mitambo yemavhidhiyo. Izvi zvinodaro nekuti kweanopfuura makore 10 ndanga ndichishanda kunyora kune akasiyana mawebhusaiti pane tekinoroji nemitambo yemavhidhiyo, ndichigadzira zvinyorwa zvinotsvaga kukupa ruzivo rwaunoda mumutauro unonzwisisika nemunhu wese.
Kana iwe uine chero mibvunzo, ruzivo rwangu rwunobva kune zvese zvine chekuita neWindows inoshanda sisitimu pamwe ne Android yenharembozha. Uye kuzvipira kwangu kuri kwauri, ndinogara ndakagadzirira kushandisa maminetsi mashoma uye kukubatsira kugadzirisa chero mibvunzo yaungave unayo munyika ino yeinternet.