- UMichael Burry ugcina ukubheja kwe-bearish ngokuchasene noNvidia kunye nePalantir ngelixa egxeka iqamza le-AI elinokwenzeka.
- I-Nvidia iphendula ngememo ebanzi kunye neziphumo zayo, ikhusela ukuthengwa kwayo, umgaqo-nkqubo wembuyekezo kunye nexesha lokuphila le-GPUs.
- Ungquzulwano lujikeleza ukuhla kwexabiso le-chip, izivumelwano zenkxaso-mali "zesetyhula", kunye nomngcipheko wotyalo-mali olugqithisileyo kwiziseko zophuhliso lwe-AI.
- Ukujongana ngezikhondo zamehlo kunokuba nefuthe kwimbono yemarike yaseYurophu yokuzinza kwenkcitho ye-AI kunye nexabiso lokwenyani leBig Tech.
Ungquzulwano phakathi UMichael Burry kunye noNvidia Iye yaba yenye yezona zihloko zilandelwa ngokusondeleyo kwiimarike zehlabathi, kuqwalaselwa ngakumbi eYurophu naseSpain, apho Abatyali-zimali abaninzi bajonge i-boom kwi-intelligence ye-artificial kunye ne-semiconductors ngokukrokra.Umphathi wengxowa-mali owavuka waduma ngokuxela kwangaphambili ngentlekele yokubolekwa kwezindlu ngo-2008 uye waqalisa ukuhlasela uluntu ngokuchasene nesigebenga se-AI. ithandabuza ukuxatyiswa kwayo nokuba semgangathweni kweshishini eye yayisa phezulu kwimarike yemasheya.
Kwelinye icala, UNvidia ulwa nezinyo kunye nezikhonkwane.Ukusebenzisa iziphumo zayo zerekhodi, imiyalezo eya kubahlalutyi beWall Street, kunye neengxelo ezivela kubaphathi bayo, inkampani iye yaphika izityholo ngenqaku. Idabi ayilomntu nje kuphela: iye yaba a isimboli sengxoxo-mpikiswano malunga nokuba i-AI boom yangoku yinguqu ezinzileyo yeparadigm okanye iqamza elitsha letekhnoloji. ezinokuchaphazela iimarike zaseYurophu, ukusuka eFrankfurt naseParis ukuya eMadrid.
Yintoni uMichael Burry ayigxekayo ngeNvidia?
Umtyali-mali osemva kwe "The Big Short" ukhuphe uthotho lwezilumkiso kwi-X kunye ne-Substack yakhe entsha, apho ikhusela ithisisi ye-bearish ecacileyo kwiNvidia kunye neshishini lezobuntlola ezenziweyo ngokubanzi. Phakathi kwamanqaku aphindaphinda rhoqo, ugxininisa inkxalabo yakhe malunga nokubizwa ngokuba yi "circularity" kwizivumelwano ze-AI kunye ne-accounting, ngokombono wakhe, ifihla inzuzo yokwenene yotyalo-mali oluninzi.
Ngokutsho kukaBurry, Inxalenye yemfuno yangoku yeetshiphusi zeNvidia inokunyuswa. ngokusebenzisa izikimu zenkxaso-mali apho ababoneleli bobuchwephesha abakhulu bathatha inxaxheba ngokuthe ngqo okanye ngokungathanga ngqo kwinkunzi okanye iiprojekthi zabaxumi babo. Njengomzekelo, uhlobo lwezivumelwano ezikhankanyiweyo zezo apho uNvidia utyala imali eninzi-ngolandelelwano lwamashumi eebhiliyoni zeedola-kwiinkampani ze-AI ezithi, nazo, zisebenzise loo mali ukwakha amaziko edatha asekelwe phantse ngokukodwa kwi-Nvidia GPUs.
Kwimiyalezo yakhe, umphathi uxoxa ukuba le pateni ikhumbuza izakhiwo ezithile ukusuka kwiqamza le-dot-com, apho Iinkampani bezixhasana ngezimali de imarike yaphelelwa lukholo kuqikelelo lokukhula kunye namaxabiso ehla. Kubatyali-zimali baseYurophu, abaqhele indlela elumke ngakumbi kulawulo kunye nokongamela ingxelo, ezi ntlobo zezilumkiso azihoywa.
Olunye ugxininiso lukaBurry lukwi imbuyekezo esekwe kwisitokhwe kunye nokuthengwa okukhulu kweNvidiaUmtyalo-mali uqikelela ukuba imbuyekezo kwiinketho zesitokhwe kunye nezabelo ezithintelweyo ziya kuba neendleko zabanini-zabelo amashumi eebhiliyoni zeedola, ukusika kakhulu oko akubiza ngokuba "yinzuzo yomnini." Ngokombono wakhe, iinkqubo ezinkulu zokubuyisela isabelo-mali zilungisa oku kuncitshiswa, endaweni yokubuyisela inkunzi kubatyali-zimali.
Eyona nto ibuthathaka kakhulu: ukuhla kwexabiso kunye nokuphelelwa lixesha kweetshiphusi ze-AI
Enye yezona zinto zinobuntununtunu kwithisisi kaBurry yimbono yakhe isantya apho chips eziphezulu ze-AI zilahlekelwa ixabiso lezoqoqoshoUmtyali-zimali uxoxa ukuba iimodeli ezintsha ze-GPU zikaNvidia zisebenza ngamandla kwaye zibonelela ngomtsi omkhulu ekusebenzeni kangangokuba zenza izizukulwana zangaphambili ziphelelwe lixesha kwakamsinya kunokuba ingxelo yezemali yeenkampani ezininzi ibonakalisa.
Kuhlalutyo lwakhe, uBurry ukhomba ngokuthe ngqo indlela iinkampani ezinkulu zetekhnoloji kunye nabanikezeli bamafu bathengisa amaziko abo edathaNgokutsho kwethisisi yakhe, ezi nkampani ziya kwandisa ubomi obuluncedo besixhobo-umzekelo, ukusuka kwiminyaka emithathu ukuya kwemihlanu okanye emithandathu-ukuphucula ngobuchule iingeniso zexesha elifutshane kunye nokuthethelela utyalo-mali lwezigidi zeedola kwiziseko ezisekelwe kwi-GPU, eneneni, inokuphelelwa lixesha phakathi kwe-2026 kunye ne-2028.
Umphathi uyakugxininisa oko “Ngenxa yokuba into isetyenzisiwe ayithethi ukuba inengeniso”Ngamanye amazwi, into yokuba i-chip ihlala ifakiwe kwaye isebenza kwiziko ledatha yaseYurophu okanye yaseMelika ayithethi ukuba iya kuvelisa imbuyekezo elindelekileyo xa kuthelekiswa nesizukulwana esitsha se-hardware ekhoyo. Ukuba izixhobo ziye zehla ngokukhawuleza kunoqoqosho olubonisayo, iinkampani ziya kunyanzeleka ukuba zifunxe ilahleko enkulu kunye nohlengahlengiso lobalo-mali kwixesha elizayo.
Le ndlela ihambelana noloyiko olukhulayo kwiimarike: ukuba kunokwenzeka ukuba Iziseko ezingundoqo ze-AI ezininzi kakhulu zakhiwa ngokukhawulezaphantsi kwengqikelelo yemfuno phantse engenasiphelo. Nabaphathi beenkampani ezinkulu zeteknoloji, ezifana noSatya Nadella kwiMicrosoft, baye bavuma ukuba baye baqaphela ngokuqhubeka nokwakha amaziko edatha ngenxa yomngcipheko wotyalo-mali kwisizukulwana esinye se-chips esinamandla kunye neemfuno zokupholisa eziza kutshintsha kunye nokukhutshwa kwe-hardware elandelayo.
KwiYurophu, apho ii-telecoms ezininzi, iibhanki ezinkulu kunye namaqela emizi-mveliso aqwalasela utyalo-mali olukhulu kubuchule be-AI, izilumkiso malunga nokuhla kwexabiso kunye nokuphelelwa lixesha. Oku kunokukhokelela kuphononongo lwamaxesha eprojekthi kunye nokwandiswa.ngakumbi kwiimarike ezilawulwayo ezifana nezezimali okanye icandelo lezamandla, apho iisuphavayiza ziphonononga ezi nqobo zocwangciso ngocoselelo.
I-counteroffensive kaNvidia: imemo kwiWall Street kunye nokukhusela iCUDA
Wasabela ngokukhawuleza uNvidia. Ijongene nokukhula kokusasazwa kwezigxeko zikaBurry, inkampani yathumela imemo ende kubahlalutyi baseWall Street apho wazama ukuphikisa amabango amaninzi kaBurry. Olu xwebhu, oluye lwavuza kumaziko osasazo akhethekileyo, luphonononga izibalo zikaBurry malunga nokuthengwa kwezinto kunye nembuyekezo yesitokhwe kwaye ligxininisa ukuba amanye amanani akhe aquka izinto—ezifana neerhafu ezithile ezinxulunyaniswa neRSU—enyusa elona xabiso labelwe ukuthenga.
Ngeli xesha, ngexesha lonikezelo lweziphumo zekota zamva nje, inkampani ithathe eli thuba ukukhusela ubomi kunye nexabiso lezoqoqosho kwiiGPU zaboIGosa eliPhezulu lezeMali uColette Kress ugxininise ukuba iqonga lesoftware yeCUDA yandisa kakhulu ixesha lokuphila le-accelerators yeNvidia, njengoko ukuphuculwa rhoqo kwi-software ye-software kubavumela ukuba baqhubeke nokwandisa amandla ee-chips zesizukulwana esidala, ezifana ne-A100s ethunyelwe kwiminyaka eyadlulayo, inkampani ithi iyaqhubeka nokusebenza ngamazinga aphezulu okusetyenziswa.
Ingcamango ephambili yeNvidia yileyo Ukuhambelana kweCUDA kunye nesiseko esikhulu esifakiweyo Oku kwenza iindleko zizonke zobunini bezisombululo zabo zibe nomtsalane ngakumbi xa kuthelekiswa nezinye ii-accelerators. Ngale ndlela, nokuba kuvela izizukulwana ezitsha, ezisebenza kakuhle ngakumbi, abathengi banokuqhubeka nokusebenzisa iinkqubo zabo esele zihlawulwe ngexabiso eliphantsi ngelixa bephucula iziseko zabo, endaweni yokulahla umthamo omkhulu wezinto zehardware ngaxeshanye.
Abahlalutyi abanjengoBen Reitzes weMelius Research baye babonisa ukuba inkampani Ikwazile ukubonisa ukuba iishedyuli zokuhla kwexabiso zabathengi bayo abaninzi Abayi kuba ndlongondlongo njengoko abagxeki becebisa, ngenxa yenkxaso eqhubekayo yesoftware. Le ngxelo ibaluleke kakhulu kumaqela amakhulu aseYurophu-ukusuka kubaboneleli bamafu basekhaya ukuya kwiibhanki kunye neenkampani zoshishino-eziqwalasela utyalo-mali lweminyaka emininzi.
Nangona kunjalo, uBurry ucinga ukuba "kungenangqondo" ukuba imemo kaNvidia inikezela umzamo omkhulu, ngokombono wakhe, ukulwa neengxabano ezingazange ziphakanyiswe, njengokuhla kwexabiso le-asethi ye-Nvidia yakhe, ekhumbula oko. Inkampani ikakhulu ngumyili wetshiphu kwaye ayisiso isigebenga esinezityalo ezikhulu kwiphepha layo lomncono. Kumtyali-mali, le mpendulo yomeleza imbono yabo yokuba inkampani izama ukuchasa ingxoxo ephambili malunga nokuhla kwexabiso kwiincwadi zabathengi bayo.
Burry kabini phantsi: ibeka, Substack, kunye ghost of Cisco
Kude nokuhlehla emva kwempendulo yenkampani, uBurry uthathe isigqibo kabini phantsi ngokuchasene noNvidiaNgokusebenzisa i-Scion Asset Management eqinile, ubonise ukuba ubambe izikhundla ezimfutshane usebenzisa iinketho zokubeka kwi-Nvidia kunye ne-Palantir, kunye nexabiso elihlanganisiweyo le-notional lidlula ibhiliyoni enye yeedola kwimihla ethile, nangona ixabiso elithe ngqo liphantsi kakhulu kwiphothifoliyo yakhe.
Kwincwadana yakhe entsha ehlawulweyo, "uCassandra Unchained", uBurry unikezela inxalenye ebalulekileyo yohlalutyo lwakhe. into ayibiza ngokuba "yi-AI industrial complex"enokubandakanya abavelisi be-chip, amaqonga esoftware, kunye nababoneleli belifu abakhulu. Apho, ugxininisa ukuba akaqhathanisi uNvidia kunye nobuqhetseba be-accounting ye-textbook njengo-Enron, kodwa kwi-Cisco ekupheleni kwe-1990s: inkampani yokwenyani enobuchwepheshe obufanelekileyo, kodwa enye, ngokutsho kombono wakhe wembali, igalelo ekwakheni iziseko ezingaphezulu kunokuba imarike inokuyifumana ngelo xesha, ekugqibeleni ikhokelela ekuweni kwexabiso layo lesitokhwe.
Ngaphezu koko, umphathi ukhumbula imbali yakhe yokubheja ngokuchasene nemvumelwano. Ukuchaneka kwakhe ngokulindela ingxaki ye-subprime Oku kwamzisela udumo lwehlabathi lonke, kodwa ukwanekamva eliphikisanayo ngakumbi, enezilumkiso eziyintlekele ezingazange zihlale zenzeka kwaye zisilela kwimisebenzi, njengokubheja kwakhe okudumileyo ngokuchasene noTesla okanye ukuphuma kwakhe kwangoko kwi-GameStop ngaphambi kokuba ibe yinto ethi "meme stock".
Kwiinyanga zamva nje, uBurry uye wasebenzisa ithuba lokuphuma kwakhe kwisikhokelo esingqongqo solawulo-emva kokurhoxisa ukubhaliswa komphathi wakhe we-asethi kunye ne-SEC nxibelelana ngenkululeko engakumbi kumajelo eendaba ezentlalo nakwiqonga lakhe le-Substack. Ileta yakhe yeendaba yorhumo oluhlawulelwayo kuxelwe ukuba iqokelele amashumi amawaka abalandeli ngexesha elifutshane kakhulu, isenza amagqabantshintshi akhe ibe yinto ekufuneka iqwalaselwe uvakalelo lwentengiso, kubandakanywa nabatyali-mali bamaziko aseYurophu abalandela ngokusondeleyo abaphathi abakhulu bengxowa-mali yase-US.
Ingxabano yoluntu ayiphelelanga kuNvidia. UBurry uye wagcina utshintshiselwano lweengxelo kunye nabaphathi abavela kwezinye iinkampani ze-AINjengomphathi we-Palantir u-Alex Karp, owamgxeka ngenxa yokungaqondi iifayili ze-SEC ze-13F emva kokuba uKarp abize iibhethi zakhe ze-bearish "i-madness epheleleyo" kumabonwakude. Ezi ngxabano zibonisa i-polarization yangoku: kwabanye abaphathi, nabani na obuza ibali le-AI ubuyela ngasemva; kuBurry kunye nabanye abathandabuzayo, ipateni yakudala ye-over-euphoria iyaphinda.
Impembelelo kwiimarike kunye neziphumo ezinokubakho eYurophu
Ingxolo eyenziwe nguBurry vs Nvidia ukujongana Oku sele kunempembelelo kwixabiso lesitokhwe senkampani.Nangona ixabiso lesitokhwe liphinde lavela emva kweziphumo ezimangalisayo zekota, liye lafumana izilungiso ezinamanani aphindwe kabini ukusuka kumanani aphezulu amva nje phakathi kwesilumkiso esikhulayo esijikeleze icandelo le-AI. Xa ixabiso lesitokhwe sikaNvidia liwa kakhulu, ayenzi njalo yodwa: itsala i-indices kunye nezinye izitokhwe zetekhnoloji ezinxulumene nebali elifanayo lokukhula.
Kwiimarike zaseYurophu, apho abaphathi bengxowa-mali abaninzi banayo ukuvezwa okuphezulu okungathanga ngqo kumjikelo we-AI Kuyo yonke i-Nasdaq, ii-ETF zecandelo, kunye ne-semiconductor yendawo okanye iinkampani zamafu, naluphi na uphawu lokungazinzi kwinkokeli yeshishini elingenakuphikiswa lijongwa ngenkxalabo. Ukutshintsha okubukhali kweemvakalelo malunga noNvidia kunokuguqulela ukuguquguquka kweenkampani zaseYurophu ezibonelela ngezixhobo, ukulawula amaziko edatha, okanye ukuphuhlisa isoftware exhomekeke kwiziseko zeGPU.
Ingxoxo-mpikiswano ngezivumelwano zemali ezijikelezayo kunye nokwehla kwexabiso letshiphu nayo inxulumana ne izinto eziphambili zabalawuli baseYurophungokwesiko ngqongqo ngokuphathelene nokubalwa kwezinto elubala kunye nokugxila kumngcipheko. Ukuba imbono yokuba ishishini landisa ngokugqithisileyo amaxesha e-amortization okanye ukuthembela kwiinkqubo zenkxaso-mali ezingacacanga bekufuneka ziqiniswe, ukuphononongwa okukhulu xa kugunyaziswa iiprojekthi ezinkulu zotyalo-mali ze-AI ngaphakathi kwe-EU bekungenakukhutshelwa ngaphandle.
Kwangaxeshanye, ukujongana ngezikhondo zamehlo kunika isifundo esiluncedo kubatyali-mali ngabanye eSpain: ngaphaya kwengxolo yeendaba, iingxoxo zikaBurry kunye neempendulo zikaNvidia zinyanzela abatyali-mali ukuba ukuhlola iziseko zenkampani nganye ngokusondeleyo.Ukusuka kubume bembuyekezo yabo esekwe kwisitokhwe ukuya kubuchule bokwenyani babathengi babo bokufumana inzuzo kwiintengo zehardware eninzi, olu hlobo lohlalutyo lunokubaluleka kwiipotifoliyo ezidibanisa i-US stocks kunye neenkampani ezinkulu zeteknoloji zaseYurophu, okwenza umahluko phakathi kokulandela umkhwa kunye nokwakha indawo enobulumko.
Nokuba umbono kaBurry uqinisekisiwe okanye uNvidia udibanisa indima yakhe njengophumeleleyo omkhulu kwixesha le-AI, ityala libonisa indlela Umntu omnye wemidiya unokuchaphazela ibali lemarikeUkunyuswa ngamajelo eendaba ezentlalo, iincwadana zeendaba ezihlawulwayo, kunye neengxoxo zoluntu kunye nabaphathi beenkampani ezidweliswe, ibali likaBurry vs Nvidia lisebenza njengesikhumbuzo sokuba iteknoloji yokusika kunye nokuqeqeshwa kwezemali kufuneka kuhambisane kunye ukuba intshiseko iya kuthintelwa ukuba ibe yingxaki kubatyalo-mali kunye nabalawuli kumacala omabini e-Atlantic. Kwimeko apho iYurophu ifuna indawo yayo kugqatso lobukrelekrele bokwenziwa, ibali likaBurry lisebenza njengesikhumbuzo sokuba itekhnoloji ye-cutting-edge kunye noqeqesho lwezemali kufuneka luhambe kunye ukuba inzondelelo iya kuphetshwa, ekugqibeleni ibe yingxaki kubatyali-mali kunye nabalawuli kumacala omabini eAtlantiki.
Ndingumntu othanda itekhnoloji ojike umdla wakhe we "geek" waba ngumsebenzi. Ndichithe ngaphezulu kweminyaka eli-10 yobomi bam ndisebenzisa itekhnoloji yokusika kwaye ndikhenkceza ngazo zonke iintlobo zeenkqubo ngenxa yokufuna ukwazi okumsulwa. Ngoku ndiqeqeshelwe ubugcisa bekhompyutha nakwimidlalo yevidiyo. Oku kungenxa yokuba ngaphezu kweminyaka emi-5 ndibhalela iiwebhusayithi ezahlukeneyo kwitekhnoloji kunye nemidlalo yevidiyo, ndisenza amanqaku afuna ukukunika ulwazi oludingayo ngolwimi oluqondakalayo kuye wonke umntu.
Ukuba unayo nayiphi na imibuzo, ulwazi lwam lusuka kuyo yonke into enxulumene nenkqubo yokusebenza yeWindows kunye ne-Android yeefowuni eziphathwayo. Kwaye ukuzinikela kwam kukuwe, ndihlala ndikulungele ukuchitha imizuzu embalwa kwaye ndikuncede usombulule nayiphi na imibuzo onokuba nayo kweli lizwe le-intanethi.