UTrump uyalela ukuba kuqale kwakhona uvavanyo lwenyukliya "kwinqanaba lokudlala"

UDonald Trump ubhengeze ukuba uyalele iSebe lezoKhuselo ukuba "liqalise ngoko nangoko" uvavanyo lwezixhobo zenyukliya "kwinqanaba lokudlala" namanye amagunya.Umyalezo, opapashwe kwiNyaniso yeNtlalo ngaphambi nje kokudibana kwakhe noXi Jinping eMzantsi Korea, ugxininisa ukuba, ngokombono wakhe, "amanye amazwe avavanya amanzi" kwaye iUnited States kufuneka "ibuyisele." Kwiposi yakhe, Wade wabiza iPentagon ngokuthi "iSebe leMfazwe", uyilo lwembali olungaqhelekanga kwintetho esemthethweni. Lo myalelo uphakamisa ukungavisisani phakathi kokhuphiswano lobuchule neRussia neTshayina..

Le ngxelo ishiya umbuzo ongundoqo: ingaba ezi zimvavanyo eziqhumayo zenyukliya okanye iimvavanyo zeenkqubo ezikwaziyo ukuthwala iintloko zenyukliya, ezifana nemijukujelwa okanye iidrones eziphantsi kwamanzi. UTrump uthe "inkqubo iya kuqalisa ngoko nangoko"Kodwa akazange anike iinkcukacha malunga neendawo okanye ishedyuli." Lo mlinganiso ungamela inguquko ekumisweni okukhoyo ukusukela ngo-1992.

Utheni kanye kanye uTrump?

Umyalezo kaTrump ugxininisa ukuba "i-United States inezixhobo zenyukliya ezininzi kunalo naliphi na elinye ilizwe" kwaye isigqibo sakhe sifuna "ukulingana" neMoscow kunye neBeijing. Ebuzwa kwi-Air Force One, wongeze ukuba indawo yovavanyo "iya kugqitywa kamva" kwaye wathi, "ukuba abanye bayavavanywa," kuxhomekeke e-United States "ukuba nayo." I-White House kunye nePentagon ayizange icacise ukuba ngaba ezi ziqhushumbisi okanye iimvavanyo zeenkqubo..

Esi sibhengezo singqamene nentlanganiso yakhe ebilindelwe nguXi eBusan, ilinge lokuzinzisa ubudlelwane emva kweenyanga zokungavisisani kwezoqoqosho netekhnoloji. Esi sigqibo sikwachasene nemvelaphi yamagunya amakhulu aphucula izixhobo zawo zemfazwe kunye nokonakala kolawulo lwezixhobo. Ixesha lesibhengezo longeza ubunzima bozakuzo kweli phulo.

Iimvavanyo eziqhumayo okanye iimvavanyo zeenkqubo?

Kumashumi eminyaka akutshanje, amagunya enyukliya abhenele kukulinganisa ukuthembeka okuphezulu kunye novavanyo lwemathiriyeli engaphantsi, kunye nokuvavanya izithuthi zokuhambisa (imijukujelwa kunye namaqonga) ngaphandle kokudubula iintloko zenyukliya. IRashiya isandula ingxelo yovavanyo lomjukujelwa we-Burevestnik we-nuclear-powered cruise cruise kunye ne-Poseidon unmanned torpedo, zombini ezikwaziyo ukuthwala iimfazwe zenyukliya. kodwa ngaphandle kokudubula kwenyukliya.

I-United States iphinde yaqhuba iimvavanyo zeenkqubo: uMkhosi waManzi wavavanya imijukujelwa ye-Trident eyaziswa ngeenqanawa ezingaphantsi kwamanzi ngoSeptemba. Nangona kunjalo, i-US yokugqibela yokuqhushumba yenyukliya ibuyele kuSeptemba 23, 1992, uvavanyo lwe "Divider", olwenziwe phantsi komhlaba e-Nevada emva kokumiswa kwesaziso ngaloo nyaka. Ukuqalisa kwakhona uvavanyo lokuqhushumba kuya kuphawula ikhefu eliyimbali kumashumi amathathu eminyaka yokuziqhelanisa..

Imihla emisiweyo, iindawo kunye nesikhokelo somthetho

Ngokutsho kwe-Congressional Research Service (CRS), ukulungiselela uvavanyo lwenyukliya oluqhumayo lungathatha phakathi kwe-24 kunye neenyanga ze-36 ukususela kumhla womyalelo kamongameli, ngenxa yezizathu zobugcisa, ukhuseleko kunye nokulawula. Indawo eyayisakuba yiNevada Test Site—ngoku iNevada National Security Site— Igcina iziseko ezingundoqo ezinokuphinda zisebenze ngokugunyaziswa ngurhulumente.

Ukusukela ngo-1996, xa kwavulwa iSivumelwano soVavanyo loVavanyo lweNyukliya oluBanzi (CTBT) ukuze sityikitywe, yi-India kuphela nePakistan (1998) kunye noMntla Korea (amatyeli aliqela ukusukela ngo-2006) ezithe zadubula izixhobo zenyukliya. Isivumelwano sokugqibela esikhulu samazwe amabini, UKUQALA esitsha phakathi kwe-US neRussia, siphelelwa ngo-2026. eyongeza ukungaqiniseki kwisakhelo solawulo lwezixhobo.

IiArsenals kunye ne-balance balance

I-Arms Control Association iqikelela ukuba iRussia inamalunga nama-5.580 eemfazwe kunye ne-United States malunga ne-5.225, igxile phakathi kwazo malunga ne-90% yezixhobo zehlabathi. I-China inobuncinci be-600 kwaye ingadlula i-1.000 ekupheleni kweminyaka elishumi, ngokutsho kwePentagon..

Ngokunxuseneyo, i-China iye yandisa ii-silos zayo ezijulwayo kunye nokusungula izakhiwo, yavavanya i-ICBM phezu kwePasifiki, kwaye yabonisa udidi lwayo lwenyukliya-umhlaba, ulwandle, kunye nomoya-kwimida yamva nje. Le nkqubela phambili, idityaniswa nokuphuculwa kweRashiya kunye novavanyo lweenkqubo e-US, Ivuselela uloyiko logqatso lwezixhobo olutsha oluguquguqukayo..

Iimpendulo e-US kunye nemiyalezo evela eBeijing

Isibhengezo sitsale ukugxekwa kwangoko kubameli beDemokhrasi e-Nevada, ilizwe elidityaniswe ngokwembali kulingo: uSenator uJacky Rosen ulumkise ukuba uza kulwa ukunqanda naluphi na uvavanyo oluqhumayo, kwaye iCongresswoman Dina Titus yabhengeza ukuba izakwazisa umthetho ukuyiyeka. INdlu yoWiso-mthetho yaseNevada yenza isigqibo ngoMeyi sokuba kugcinwe ukumiswa.

Ukusuka eBeijing, uMphathiswa Wezangaphandle uvakalise ithemba lakhe lokuba iWashington iya kuhlonela ukuzibophelela kwayo ekunqumamiseni iimvavanyo zenyukliya kwaye ifake isandla kwizenzo ezibambekayo ekungabhebhetheki nasekuzinzeni kobuchule. UTrump, kwelakhe icala, uthe eyona njongo yakhe kukwehla kwaye iUnited States ibambe iingxoxo zedenuclearization kunye neRussia, kunokwenzeka ukuba ibandakanye neChina. I-rhetoric idibanisa uxinzelelo kunye nesithembiso seentetho ezintsha.

Umxholo waseYurophu kunye neSpanish

EYurophu, ukuqaliswa kwakhona kovavanyo-nokuba kumhlaba wase-US-kuya kuba nefuthe lezopolitiko kunye nokhuseleko: ukomeleza izikhundla zokuthintela ngaphakathi kwe-NATO, ukubeka uxinzelelo kwiinkqubo zokuqinisekisa ze-CTBT, kunye nempendulo enokubakho yozakuzo evela kwi-EU. ISpain, njengeqabane kwi-Alliance kunye nomkhuseli wokuthotywa kwezixhobo, iya kuhlala ihambelana nokungaqhubeki..

Kumaqabane aseYurophu, umngcipheko ophambili yintshukumo kunye nokusabela okukhawulezisa ukwenziwa kwezixhobo zala maxesha kwaye kube nzima ukuyilwa kolawulo. Ukusabela kwamakomkhulu aseYurophu kuya kuxhomekeka ekubeni kubhengezwe uvavanyo oluqhumayo okanye iinkqubo zovavanyo kuphela, ifuthe lokuqinisekiswa kwezizwe ngezizwe, kunye nokuvela konxibelelwano phakathi kweWashington, iMoscow neBeijing. Igumbi leDiplomatic for maneuver liya kuba ngundoqo ekuthinteleni ukunyuka.

Yintoni ecacileyo ukuza kuthi ga ngoku

• Yintoni eyalelweyo: ukuqalisa iimvavanyo "kwimiqathango elinganayo" kunye neRashiya kunye neChina, ngaphandle kokuchaza ukuba kuya kubakho ukuchithwa.
• Yintoni engaziwayo: indawo, ishedyuli kunye nomda wobugcisa; Ii-arhente ekudityanwe nazo azinikanga zinkcukacha.
• Ithini idatha: ukuqhuma kokugqibela kwe-US ngo-1992; ukulungiselela uvavanyo olutsha kunokuthatha iinyanga ezingama-24-36.
• Ibandakanya ntoni: uxinzelelo olwandisiweyo kulawulo lokunganyanzelisi kunye neengxoxo zangaphakathi e-US, kunye nempembelelo ye-geopolitical eYurophu.

Ukuhamba kukaTrump kuvula inqanaba lokuqwalaselwa okuphezulu kumazwe ngamazwe: phakathi kokuqinisekiswa kwenkqubo elula kunye nokubuyela kuvavanyo oluqhumayo, Umahluko mkhulu kukhuseleko lwehlabathi, ulawulo lwezixhobo, kunye nozinzo lwaseYurophu.Iingxelo ezisemthethweni ezilandelayo kunye nokusabela kwamanye amagunya kuya kugqiba ukuba oku kunyuka kuguqulela kwisenzo okanye kuhlala kungumzabalazo wamandla wezopolitiko kunye nobuchwepheshe.