- UMichael Burry ugcina ukubheja kwe-bearish ngokumelene no-Nvidia no-Palantir ngenkathi egxeka ibhamuza le-AI elingenzeka.
- I-Nvidia iphendula ngememo ebanzi futhi emiphumeleni yayo, ivikela ukuthengwa kwayo, inqubomgomo yayo yesinxephezelo kanye nempilo ye-GPU yayo.
- Ukungqubuzana kumayelana nokwehla kwenani le-chip, izivumelwano zezimali "eziyisiyingi", kanye nengozi yokutshalwa kwezimali ngokweqile kwingqalasizinda ye-AI.
- Ukungqubuzana kungase kube nomthelela embonweni wemakethe yaseYurophu ngokusimama kokusetshenziswa kwemali kwe-AI kanye nenani langempela le-Big Tech.
Ukungqubuzana phakathi UMichael Burry noNvidia Ibe ngesinye sezihloko ezilandelwa kakhulu ezimakethe zomhlaba, kubhekwe kakhulu eYurophu naseSpain, lapho Abatshalizimali abaningi babheke ukuchuma kobuhlakani bokwenziwa nama-semiconductors ngokusola.Umphathi wesikhwama owaduma ngokubikezela inkinga ye-mortgage yango-2008 useqale ukuhlasela umphakathi ngokumelene nomdondoshiya we-AI. ukungabaza kokubili ukulinganisa kwayo kanye nempilo yebhizinisi eseyibeke phezulu emakethe yamasheya.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, UNvidia ulwa nezinyo nezinzipho.Isebenzisa imiphumela yayo erekhodiwe, imilayezo eya kubahlaziyi be-Wall Street, kanye nezitatimende zabaphathi bayo, inkampani ikuphikisile izinsolo ngamaphuzu. Impi akuyona nje yomuntu siqu: isiphenduke a uphawu lwenkulumo-mpikiswano mayelana nokuthi i-AI boom yamanje iwushintsho oluqhubekayo lwepharadigm noma ibhamuza lobuchwepheshe obusha okungase kuthinte izimakethe zaseYurophu, kusukela eFrankfurt naseParis kuya eMadrid.
Yini uMichael Burry ayigxekayo ngempela ngoNvidia?
Umtshali-zimali ngemuva kwe-"The Big Short" ubelokhu ekhipha uchungechunge lwezixwayiso ku-X kanye ne-Substack yakhe entsha, lapho ivikela i-thesis ye-bearish ecacile ku-Nvidia kanye nemboni yezobunhloli bokwenziwa jikelele. Phakathi kwamaphuzu aphindaphinda kaningi, uqokomisa ukukhathazeka kwakhe mayelana nalokho okubizwa ngokuthi "i-circularity" ezivumelwaneni ze-AI kanye ne-accounting ukuthi, ngokombono wakhe, ifihla inzuzo yangempela yokutshalwa kwezimali okuningi.
Ngokusho kukaBurry, Ingxenye yesidingo samanje sama-chips e-Nvidia ingase ikhuliswe. ngezinhlelo zezimali lapho abahlinzeki abakhulu bezobuchwepheshe babamba iqhaza ngokuqondile noma ngokungaqondile emalini noma kumaphrojekthi amaklayenti abo. Njengesibonelo, uhlobo lwezivumelwano ezicashuniwe kube yilezo lapho uNvidia etshala izimali ezinkulu-ngokuhleleka kwamashumi ezigidigidi zamaRandi-ezinkampanini ze-AI, nazo, ezisebenzisa leyo mali ukwakha izikhungo zedatha ezisekelwe cishe kuma-Nvidia GPUs kuphela.
Emilayezweni yakhe, umphathi uphikisa ngokuthi leli phethini likhumbuza izakhiwo ezithile ezivela kubhamuza le-dot-com, lapho Izinkampani zazixhasana ngokwezimali kwaze kwaba yilapho imakethe ilahlekelwa ukholo ekulinganiseni ukukhula kanye namanani ehla. Kubatshalizimali baseYurophu, abajwayele indlela ethize eqaphe kakhudlwana ekulawuleni nasekubhekeni amabhukumaka, lezi zinhlobo zezexwayiso azinakwa.
Okunye okugxilwe nguBurry ku- isinxephezelo esisekelwe esitokweni kanye nokuthenga okukhulu kwe-NvidiaUmtshali-zimali ulinganisela ukuthi isinxephezelo sezinketho zesitoko kanye namasheya avinjelwe bekuzobiza abanikazi bamasheya amashumi ezigidigidi zamaRandi, kunciphise kakhulu lokho akubiza ngokuthi "inzuzo yomnikazi." Ngokubona kwakhe, izinhlelo ezinkulu zokubuyisela amasheya zivele zisuse lokhu kuncipha, kunokuba empeleni zibuyisele imali kubatshalizimali.
Iphuzu elintekenteke kakhulu: ukwehla kwenani kanye nokuphelelwa yisikhathi kwama-AI chips
Esinye sezici ezibucayi kakhulu ku-thesis ka-Burry umbono wakhe isivinini lapho ama-chips e-AI aphezulu alahlekelwa khona inani lezomnothoUmtshali-zimali uthi amamodeli e-GPU amasha akwa-Nvidia asebenza ngendlela eyonga kakhulu futhi anikezela ngokugxuma okukhulu ekusebenzeni okwenza izizukulwane ezedlule zingasebenzi ngokushesha kunokuba kuboniswa izitatimende zezimali zezinkampani eziningi.
Ekuhlaziyeni kwakhe, uBurry ukhomba ngqo indlela izinkampani ezinkulu zobuchwepheshe nabahlinzeki bamafu abathengisa ngayo izikhungo zabo zedathaNgokuvumelana nethesis yakhe, lezi zinkampani zizokwelula impilo ewusizo yokubalwa kwezimali yemishini - ngokwesibonelo, kusukela eminyakeni emithathu kuye kwemihlanu noma eyisithupha - ukuze kuthuthukiswe inzuzo yesikhashana esifushane futhi kuthethelele ukutshalwa kwezimali kwezigidigidi zamadola kwingqalasizinda esekwe ku-GPU, empeleni, engaphelelwa yisikhathi phakathi kuka-2026 no-2028.
Umphathi uyakugcizelela lokho “Ukuthi okuthile kusetshenziswa akusho ukuthi kunenzuzo”Ngamanye amazwi, iqiniso lokuthi i-chip ihlala ifakiwe futhi isebenza esikhungweni sedatha saseYurophu noma saseMelika akusho ukuthi izokhiqiza imbuyiselo elindelekile uma iqhathaniswa nesizukulwane esisha sehadiwe etholakalayo. Uma okokusebenza kwehliswa ngokushesha ngokomnotho kunalokho okuboniswa amathebula okwehla, izinkampani zizophoqeleka ukuthi zithole ukulahlekelwa okuphawulekayo kokonakala kanye nokulungiswa kwezibalo esikhathini esizayo.
Le ndlela ihambisana nokwesaba okukhulayo ezimakethe: kungenzeka ukuthi Ingqalasizinda ye-AI eningi kakhulu yakhiwa ngokushesha okukhulungaphansi kokucatshangelwa kokufunwa cishe okungapheli. Ngisho nabaphathi bezinkampani ezinkulu zobuchwepheshe, njengoSatya Nadella kwaMicrosoft, bavumile ukuthi baye baqaphela ngokuqhubeka nokwakha izikhungo zedatha ngenxa yengozi yokutshala imali ngokweqile esizukulwaneni esisodwa sama-chips anamandla kanye nezidingo zokupholisa ezizoshintsha ngokukhishwa kwehadiwe okulandelayo.
EYurophu, lapho izingcingo ezimbalwa, amabhange amakhulu kanye namaqembu ezimboni ecubungula ukutshalwa kwezimali okukhulu kwamandla e-AI, izexwayiso mayelana nokwehla kwenani kanye nokuphelelwa yisikhathi. Lokhu kungaholela ekubuyekezweni kwezikhathi zephrojekthi kanye nokukalwa.ikakhulukazi ezimakethe ezilawulwayo njengemboni yezezimali noma yezamandla, lapho abaphathi becubungula lezi zindlela zokubala ngokucophelela.
Ukuphikisa kuka-Nvidia: imemo eya ku-Wall Street kanye nokuvikela i-CUDA
Ukusabela kukaNvidia kwakushesha. Ibhekene nokwanda kokusatshalaliswa kokugxeka kukaBurry, inkampani yathumela imemo ende kubahlaziyi be-Wall Street lapho azama khona ukuphikisa izimangalo eziningi zikaBurry. Lo mbhalo, oputshuzwe eziteshini zezindaba ezikhethekile, ubuyekeza izibalo zika-Burry mayelana nokuthengwa kwempahla kanye nesinxephezelo sesitoko futhi ugcizelela ukuthi ezinye zezibalo zakhe zihlanganisa izici—njengezintela ezithile ezixhumene ne-RSU—ezikhuphula inani langempela elabelwe ukuthenga.
Khonamanjalo, ngesikhathi sokwethulwa kwemiphumela yakamuva yekota, inkampani isebenzise leli thuba ukuze kuvikelwe isikhathi sokuphila kanye nenani lezomnotho lama-GPU aboIsikhulu Esiphezulu Sezezimali uColette Kress ugcizelele ukuthi ipulatifomu yesoftware ye-CUDA inweba kakhulu isikhathi sempilo yama-accelerator akwa-Nvidia, njengoba ukuthuthukiswa okuqhubekayo kwesitaki sesoftware kubavumela ukuthi baqhubeke nokukhulisa amandla ama-chips esizukulwane esidala, njengama-A100s athunyelwa eminyakeni edlule, inkampani ethi iyaqhubeka nokusebenza ngamanani aphezulu okusetshenziswa.
Umbono oyinhloko kaNvidia yilokho Ukuhambisana kwe-CUDA nesisekelo esikhulu esifakiwe Lokhu kwenza izindleko eziphelele zobunikazi bezixazululo zabo zikhange kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa nezinye izisheshisi. Ngale ndlela, noma ngabe kuvela izizukulwane ezintsha, ezisebenza kahle kakhulu, amakhasimende angaqhubeka nokusebenzisa amasistimu awo asevele ekhokhwa ngenkathi ethuthukisa ingqalasizinda yawo kancane kancane, esikhundleni sokulahla ihadiwe enkulu ngesikhathi esisodwa.
Abahlaziyi abanjengoBen Reitzes weMelius Research baveze ukuthi inkampani ikwazile ukuveza ukuthi amashejuli okwehla kwenani lamakhasimende ayo amakhulu Ngeke babe nolaka njengoba abagxeki bephakamisa, ngenxa yalokho kusekelwa okuqhubekayo kwesofthiwe. Lokhu kulandisa kusebenza ikakhulukazi emaqenjini amakhulu ase-Europe—kusuka kubahlinzeki bamafu bendawo kuya emabhange nasezinkampanini zezimboni—acubungula ukutshalwa kwezimali kweminyaka eminingi.
Noma kunjalo, u-Burry ubheka "njengokungenangqondo" ukuthi imemo kaNvidia inikezela umzamo omkhulu, ngokombono wakhe, ukulwa nezingxabano ezingazange ziphakanyiswe, njengokuncipha kwempahla ehleliwe kaNvidia, ekhumbula lokho. Inkampani ngokuyinhloko ingumklami we-chip futhi hhayi umdondoshiya wokukhiqiza onezitshalo ezinkulu eshidini laso lebhalansi. Kumtshali-zimali, le mpendulo iqinisa umbono wabo wokuthi inkampani izama ukuhoxisa inkulumo-mpikiswano emaphakathi mayelana nokwehla kwenani lamabhuku amakhasimende ayo.
I-Burry iphinda kabili phansi: ibeka, i-Substack, kanye nesipoki se-Cisco
Kunokuba ahlehle ngemuva kwempendulo yenkampani, uBurry usenqume kabili phansi ngokumelene noNvidiaNgokusebenzisa i-Scion Asset Management yakhe eqinile, wembula ukuthi unezikhundla ezimfushane esebenzisa izinketho zokubeka kokubili i-Nvidia ne-Palantir, enenani elihlanganisiwe elilinganiselwe elidlula amadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ngezinsuku ezithile, nakuba enezindleko eziqondile eziphansi kakhulu kwiphothifoliyo yakhe.
Encwadini yakhe yezindaba entsha ekhokhelwayo, “Cassandra Unchained”, u-Burry unikeza ingxenye enkulu yokuhlaziya kwakhe lokho akubiza ngokuthi “i-AI industrial complex”okungahlanganisa abakhiqizi bama-chip, izinkundla zesofthiwe, nabahlinzeki abakhulu bamafu. Lapho, uphikelela ngokuthi akaqhathanisi uNvidia nokukhwabanisa kwe-accounting yezincwadi ezifana no-Enron, kodwa ku-Cisco ngasekupheleni kwawo-1990: inkampani yangempela enobuchwepheshe obufanele, kodwa leyo, ngokombono wakhe womlando, yaba negalelo ekwakheni ingqalasizinda engaphezu kwalokho imakethe engase imunce ngaleso sikhathi, ekugcineni iholele ekuweni kwenani layo lesitoko.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, umphathi ukhumbula umlando wakhe wokubheja ngokumelene nokuvumelana. Ukunemba kwakhe ekulindeleni inkinga ye-subprime Kumlethele udumo emhlabeni wonke, kodwa futhi unomsebenzi wakhe owaba nempikiswano, onezixwayiso eziyinhlekelele ezingazange zenzeke njalo futhi zehluleke ukusebenza, njengokubheja kwakhe okudumile ngokumelene noTesla noma ukuphuma kwakhe ku-GameStop ngaphambi kokuthi kube "i-meme stock".
Ezinyangeni ezedlule, u-Burry usebenzise ithuba lokuphuma kwakhe ohlakeni oluqinile lokulawula—ngemuva kokusula ukubhalisa umphathi wakhe wempahla ne-SEC— ukuxhumana nenkululeko eyengeziwe ezinkundleni zokuxhumana nasendaweni yakhe ye-Substack. Incwadi yakhe yezindaba yokubhaliselwe okukhokhelwayo kubikwa ukuthi iqoqe amashumi ezinkulungwane zabalandeli ngesikhathi esifushane kakhulu, okwenza ukuphawula kwakhe kube yisici okufanele sicatshangelwe ukuze kusizwe imakethe, okuhlanganisa nabatshalizimali bezikhungo zaseYurophu abalandela eduze abaphathi abakhulu bezikhwama zase-US.
Ingxabano yomphakathi ayikhawulelwe ku-Nvidia. U-Burry ugcinile ukushintshana kwezitatimende nabaphathi abavela kwezinye izinkampani ze-AINjengomphathi omkhulu we-Palantir u-Alex Karp, amgxeka ngokungaqondi ukufakwa kwe-SEC ye-13F ngemuva kokuthi u-Karp ebize ukubheja kwakhe kwe-bearish "ukuhlanya okuphelele" kuthelevishini. Lokhu kungqubuzana kubonisa ukuhlukana kwamanje: kwabanye abaphathi, noma ubani obuza ukulandisa kwe-AI usalela emuva; ku-Burry nabanye abangabazayo, iphethini yakudala ye-over-euphoria iyaziphinda.
Umthelela ezimakethe kanye nemiphumela engaba khona eYurophu
Umsindo odalwe ukungqubuzana kukaBurry vs Nvidia Lokhu sekuvele kube nomthelela enanini lesitoko senkampani.Yize intengo yesitoko iphinde yakhuphuka ngemuva kwemiphumela emangazayo yekota, iphinde yabhekana nokulungiswa kwamadijithi amabili kusuka kumanani aphezulu akamuva phakathi kwesexwayiso esikhulayo esizungeze umkhakha we-AI. Lapho intengo yesitoko sikaNvidia yehla kakhulu, ayikwenzi lokho yodwa: idonsela phansi ama-indices nezinye izitoko zobuchwepheshe ezihlobene nokulandisa okufanayo kokukhula.
Ezimakethe zaseYurophu, lapho abaphathi bezikhwama abaningi benakho ukuchayeka okungaqondile okuphezulu kumjikelezo we-AI Ku-Nasdaq yonkana, ama-ETF embonini, kanye ne-semiconductor yasendaweni noma izinkampani zamafu, noma iluphi uphawu lokungazinzi kumholi womkhakha ongenambangi lubukwa ngokukhathazeka. Ukushintsha okubukhali kwemizwa ngokuphathelene ne-Nvidia kungahumushela ekubeni kushintshashintshashintsha kwezinkampani zase-Europe ezihlinzeka ngezinto zokusebenza, ezilawula izikhungo zedatha, noma zithuthukise isofthiwe ethembele kungqalasizinda ye-GPU.
Inkulumo-mpikiswano ngezivumelwano zezimali eziyindilinga kanye nokwehla kwenani le-chip iphinde ixhumeke izinto eziza kuqala zabalawuli baseYurophungokwesiko kuqinile maqondana nokubalwa kwezimali obala kanye nokugxila engcupheni. Uma umbono wokuthi imboni yelula ngokweqile izikhathi zokuncishiswa kwezindleko noma ithembele ezinhlelweni zezimali ezifiphele bekufanele iqiniswe, ukucutshungulwa okukhulu lapho kugunyazwa amaphrojekthi amakhulu okutshalwa kwezimali kwe-AI ngaphakathi kwe-EU bekungeke kukhishwe.
Ngasikhathi sinye, ukungqubuzana kunikeza isifundo esiwusizo kubatshalizimali ngabanye eSpain: ngale komsindo wabezindaba, izingxabano zikaBurry kanye nezimpendulo zikaNvidia ziphoqa abatshalizimali ukuthi ukuhlola izisekelo zenkampani ngayinye eduze.Kusukela esakhiweni sesinxephezelo sabo esisekelwe esitokweni kuya emandleni angempela amaklayenti awo okuzuza ngokuthengwa kwezingxenyekazi zekhompyutha ngobuningi, lolu hlobo lokuhlaziya lungaba lubalulekile kumaphothifoliyo ahlanganisa amasheya ase-US nezinkampani ezinkulu zobuchwepheshe zaseYurophu, okwenza umehluko phakathi kokulandela inkambiso nokwakha isikhundla esihlakaniphe kakhulu.
Ukuthi umbono kaBurry uqinisekisiwe noma uNvidia uhlanganisa indima yakhe njengomnqobi omkhulu wenkathi ye-AI, icala libonisa ukuthi kanjani Umuntu oyedwa wemidiya angaba nomthelela ekulandiseni kwemaketheIkhuliswe yimithombo yezokuxhumana, izincwadi zezindaba ezikhokhelwayo, kanye nezinkulumo-mpikiswano zomphakathi nabaphathi bezinkampani ezisohlwini, indaba ye-Burry vs. Nvidia isebenza njengesikhumbuzo sokuthi ubuchwepheshe obunqamulelayo kanye nesiyalo sezimali kufanele kuhambisane uma umdlandla kufanele uvinjelwe ekubeni yinkinga kubatshalizimali kanye nabalawuli ezinhlangothini zombili ze-Atlantic. Esimweni lapho iYurophu ifuna indawo yayo emncintiswaneni wezobunhloli bokwenziwa, indaba kaBurry iyisikhumbuzo sokuthi ubuchwepheshe obusezingeni eliphezulu kanye nokuziphatha kwezezimali kumele kuhambisane uma isasasa kufanele kugwenywe, ekugcineni kube yinkinga kubatshalizimali nabalawuli kuzo zombili izinhlangothi ze-Atlantic.
Ngingumshisekeli wezobuchwepheshe oguqule izintshisekelo zakhe "ze-geek" zaba umsebenzi. Ngichithe iminyaka engaphezu kwengu-10 yempilo yami ngisebenzisa ubuchwepheshe obusezingeni eliphezulu kanye nokukitaza ngazo zonke izinhlobo zezinhlelo ngenxa yelukuluku lokufuna ukwazi. Manje sengiqeqeshelwe ubuchwepheshe be-computer nemidlalo yama-video. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi sekuphele iminyaka engaphezu kwengu-5 ngisebenza ngokubhalela amawebhusayithi ahlukahlukene ezobuchwepheshe nemidlalo yevidiyo, ngenza izindatshana ezifuna ukukunikeza imininingwane oyidingayo ngolimi oluqondakala yiwo wonke umuntu.
Uma unemibuzo, ulwazi lwami lusukela kuyo yonke into ehlobene nesistimu yokusebenza ye-Windows kanye ne-Android yomakhalekhukhwini. Futhi ukuzibophezela kwami kuwe, ngihlala ngizimisele ukuchitha amaminithi ambalwa futhi ngikusize uxazulule noma yimiphi imibuzo ongase ube nayo kulo mhlaba we-inthanethi.