UTrump uvulela iNvidia ithuba lokudayisa ama-chips e-H200 eShayina ngentela engu-25%

Isinqumo sikaMongameli wase-US uDonald Trump sokuthi Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwama-chip e-H200 e-Nvidia kuvuliwe kancane eShayina Kushintshe ngokuzumayo isimo sobuchwepheshe bobuhlakani bokwenziwa. I-White House ikhethe indawo ephakathi nendawo: vumela ukuthengisa, kodwa ukuze uthole intela ephezulu, a isihlungi esiphelele sokuphepha kanye nohlaka lokulawula okwenza kucace ukuthi okubalulekile kuseyinzuzo yamasu e-United States.

Lesi sinyathelo, esidluliselwe ngqo ku-Xi Jinping futhi sasatshalaliswa nge-Truth Social, sihlanganisa izintshisekelo zomnotho, ukuncintisana kwezepolitiki, kanye nokubalwa kokhethoI-Nvidia, i-AMD, ne-Intel zizophinde zifinyelele kwenye yezimakethe zazo ezinkulu, kodwa ngaphansi kokuqashwa okuseduze kanye ne- Kusazobonakala ukuthi iBeijing izovumela kangakanani izinkampani zayo ukuthi zithenge laba basebenzi bokucubungula. ngemuva kokukhuthaza inqubomgomo yokushintsha ubuchwepheshe kubaphakeli bakazwelonke.

Imvume enemibandela: ukuhlolwa kwentela kanye nokuphepha okungu-25%

UTrump umemezele ukuthi I-Nvidia izokwazi ukuthengisa i-chip yayo ye-H200 kumakhasimende agunyaziwe eShayina nakwamanye amazweuma nje bephumelela ukuhlolwa okuqinile kokuphepha kwezwe. Lokhu kuthengiselana ngeke kube ukushintshaniswa kwezentengiselwano okulula: umthengi ngamunye kumele ahlolwe yiziphathimandla zase-US, ezizobuyekeza ukusetshenziswa okungenzeka kwezempi, amasu, noma okubucayi kwalaba basebenzi abasebenza kahle kakhulu.

Emlayezo wakhe, umongameli uchaze ukuthi I-United States izogcina u-25% wemali engenayo etholwe yilokhu kuthengisaLokhu kungaphezulu kakhulu kuka-15% uNvidia ayevumelene ngawo neWashington ngaphambilini ukuze kuthunyelwe ngaphandle imodeli ye-H20O. I-White House icabanga ukukhulisa lolu hlelo "lwelayisensi kanye nekhomishini" kwabanye abakhiqizi abafana no- I-AMD ne-Intelukuze noma yikuphi ukufinyelela kuma-chip e-AI athuthukisiwe yiShayina nakanjani kudingeke kudlule esihlungini sokulawula sase-US.

Abantu abakhulumayo bathanda Karoline LeavittUnobhala wezindaba waseWhite House ugcizelele ukuthi amalayisense ngeke abe ngokuzenzakalelayo nokuthi izinkampani ezihlangabezana nezindinganiso ezithile kuphela ezizokwazi ukufinyelela. inqubo yokuhlola epheleleInhloso eshiwoyo ukunciphisa noma iyiphi ingozi yokuphambukiselwa ezinhlelweni zempi, ukuphepha kwe-inthanethi okuhlaselayo, noma izinhlelo zokuqapha ngobuningi eziphikisana nezintshisekelo zeWashington.

Ukukhululeka okuncane ekuvinjweni kwe-veto: indima ye-chip ye-H200

Inhliziyo yesilinganiso igxile ku I-H200, enye yama-chip e-AI anamandla kakhulu emndenini wakwa-Nvidia we-HopperLo mshini wokucubungula, ohloselwe izikhungo zedatha kanye nokuqeqeshwa kwamamodeli amakhulu obuhlakani bokwenziwa, wawubhekene nemikhawulo enzima yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe ngaphansi kokuphathwa kukaBiden kanye nasezigabeni zokuqala zesikhathi samanje.

Ukuze anqobe imikhawulo yangaphambilini, iNvidia yaze yakha izinguqulo ezincishisiwe njenge I-H800 kanye ne-H20ivumelaniswe nemingcele ebekwe yiWashington. Kodwa-ke, iShayina yaphendula ngokunganaki: iziphathimandla zincome ukuthi izinkampani zayo Ngeke basebenzise le mikhiqizo eyonakeleLesi simo sachazwa abahlaziyi abaningi njengesu lokucindezela lokufinyelela kuhadiwe enamandla kakhulu njenge-H200 uqobo.

Ukugunyazwa okusha kumele ushintsho lwenkambo: IWashington izovumela ukuthengiswa kwe-H200, kodwa igcina imindeni yakwaBlackwell kanye neyakwaRubin ingasasebenzi nhlobo esivumelwaneni.Isizukulwane esilandelayo sama-chip e-Nvidia senzelwe izinhlelo zokusebenza ze-AI ezidinga kakhulu. UTrump ukugcizelele lokhu ngokusobala, ekwenza kucace ukuthi laba basebenzi besizukulwane esilandelayo bazohlala begcinelwe i-United States kanye nabalingani bayo, futhi ngeke babe yingxenye yokuthunyelwa eShayina.

I-Nvidia, phakathi kwebhizinisi kanye ne-geopolitics

KuNvidia, lesi sinqumo sivula ithuba kwelinye lamathuba ayo izimakethe ezibalulekile zama-chip asebenza kahle kakhuluI-China ibangela ingxenye enkulu kakhulu yesidingo somhlaba wonke sabaprosesa bezikhungo zedatha kanye namaphrojekthi obuhlakani bokwenziwa, ngakho-ke ukubuyisa okunye kwalokho kugeleza kungaholela ezigidigidini zamaRandi engeziwe ngekota.

Isikhulu sezezimali senkampani, UColette KressWaze walinganisela ukuthi ukuthengiswa kwama-chip emakethe yaseShayina kungenza engeza phakathi kuka-$2.000 billion no-$5.000 billion kwimali engenayo yekota uma imikhawulo isusiwe. Abanye abahlaziyi, njengoGene Munster, balinganisela ukuthi ukuvulwa kabusha okungaphelele nge-H200 kungasheshisa ukukhula kwemali engenayo yonyaka ye-Nvidia ku-65% unyaka nonyaka, uma kuqhathaniswa nokubikezelwa okungu-51% ngaphambi koshintsho lomthetho.

I-CEO yenkampani, UJensen HuangUbe ngomunye wamazwi asebenzayo kakhulu eWashington acela ukuthi kuncishiswe i-veto. Ngokusho kwemithombo eseduze naye, ecashunwe emaphephandabeni aseMelika, UHuang uxwayise uhulumeni ngengozi yokuyeka imakethe ebiza amashumi ezigidigidi zamaRandi kubancintisani abasafufusa baseShayina ukube bekugcinwe ukuvalwa ngokuphelele. Ingcindezi yabo ngabe ibalulekile ekwakheni ikhambi eliphakathi nendawo: ukuthengisa okunye, kodwa ngaphansi kwezimo ezilawulwa kakhulu.

Ukusabela okusheshayo emakethe yamasheya kanye nomthelela omubi kulo mkhakha

Isimemezelo sikaTrump saba nomthelela ocishe ufane nezimakethe zezimali. Amasheya eNvidia akhuphuke cishe ngo-1,7% ekuhwebeni kwangaphambi kwemakethe. kusuka emakethe yase-US futhi yavala iseshini yangaphambilini ngenzuzo engaba ngu-1,73%. Kuze kube manje kulo nyaka, isitoko siqongelele ukukhuphuka okucishe kube ngu-28%-40% kuye ngenkomba yokulinganisa esetshenzisiwe, okungaphezulu kakhulu kokusebenza okujwayelekile kwe-S&P 500.

Le nhlangano yadonsela phansi yonke ingxenye ye-semiconductor. I-AMD ithole cishe u-1,1%-1,5% ekuhwebeni kwasekuqaleningenkathi I-Intel ithuthuke cishe phakathi kuka-0,5% no-0,8%., kusalindelwe imininingwane eyengeziwe yokuthi bazowathola yini amalayisense afanayo okuthumela kwamanye amazwe ama-chip abo obuhlakani bokwenziwa ngaphansi kwezimo ezifanayo.

Abahlaziyi abavela ezinkampanini ezifana neMorningstar bakholelwa ukuthi, naphezu kokuguquguquka kwemithetho eminyakeni yamuva nje, Inqubomgomo entsha ivula okungenani indlela eyodwa ecacile eya emalini engenayo ebalulekile ye-AI evela eShayinaKodwa-ke, baxwayisa ngokuthi ukuqhubeka kwalolu hlaka akuqinisekisiwe: IWashington iye yaqhubeka nemikhawulo futhi ingayiqinisa futhi uma isimo sezepolitiki noma sezokuphepha sishintsha.

IShayina, phakathi kokuxoxisana kanye nokuzimela kwezobuchwepheshe

Ngakolunye uhlangothi lwePacific, ukusabela kwamaShayina kuye kwabonakala kupholile. UMnyango Wezohwebo waseBeijing ubize lesi sinqumo "isinyathelo esihle kodwa esinganele"ukugcizelela ukuthi ama-veto kanye nokulawula kwe-US kusasebenza ukuncintisana okuphambeneUkugunyazwa kwe-H200 kuza futhi ngemuva kokuba leli zwe lase-Asia likhulise uxhaso olusha lwemboni yalo ye-semiconductor ngenhloso yokuthi Khulisa kabili amandla kazwelonke ama-chip aphezulu ngo-2026.

Abalawuli baseShayina manje sebecabanga ukuvumela ukufinyelela kunqunyelwe futhi kulawulwa kakhulu Ngokuphathelene nochungechunge lwe-H200, ngokusho kwemithombo ecashunwe yimithombo yezindaba yamazwe ngamazwe, izinkampani zaseShayina ezifisa ukuthola laba basebenzi kuzodingeka zenze inqubo yazo yokugunyazwa futhi zichaze ukuthi kungani abakhiqizi bendawo bengakwazi ukuhlangabezana nezidingo zabo ngama-chip akhiqizwe ngaphakathi ezweni. Ngamanye amazwi, iBeijing ihlose nokubeka imithetho nokunciphisa ukuchayeka kwayo ezinqumweni ezizimele ezivela eWashington.

Ngesikhathi esifanayo, imikhawulo yase-US isheshise isu loku Ukuzimela kobuchwepheshe baseShayinaIzwe liqinise ukutshalwa kwezimali ocwaningweni, emandleni okukhiqiza, kanye nokubambisana nabaphakeli abangalawulwa yizinga elifanayo. Esikhathini esimaphakathi, lesi sinyathelo singaholela esimweni sokuthi imephu yezobuchwepheshe ehlukene kakhulungezindinganiso kanye nezintambo zokuhlinzeka ezisebenza ngokuhambisana phakathi kwama-bloc aphikisanayo.

Ukungqubuzana kwezepolitiki eWashington mayelana nokuthengiswa kweShayina

Imvume yokuthengisa kweNvidia ayizange yamukelwe ngazwi linye eCapitol Hill. Abenzi bomthetho base-US bahlukene kakhulu ngokuthi ngabe kuyisivumelwano esiyingozi noma isinyathelo esihlakaniphile sokuqinisa ubuholi bezwe ku-AI kanye ne-semiconductors.

Amanye amalungu ePhalamende axwayisa ngengozi yokubeka Enye yezimpahla zobuchwepheshe ezibaluleke kakhulu e-United States isezandleni zomncintiswano wayo oyinhloko wamasu.Ummeleli u-Andrew Garbarino, usihlalo weKomidi Lezokuphepha Kwasekhaya Lendlu, uzwakalise ukukhathazeka ngokuthi lawa ma-chip angagcina eqinisa amakhono emikhakheni efana ne-quantum computing noma ubunhloli be-cyber, izindawo lapho ukuthuthuka kweShayina kungaba nemiphumela eqondile kwezokuphepha kwaseNtshonalanga.

Abanye, njengoNgqongqoshe uBrian Mast, usihlalo weKomidi Lezindaba Zangaphandle Lendlu, bathi lesi sinyathelo sihambisana ne-a isu elibanzi "lokuba yingcweti" yobuhlakani bokwenziwa kanye nekhompyutha ethuthukisiweNjengoba echazile, uhulumeni uzama ukugwema uhlelo lapho izikhulu zokuthumela kwamanye amazwe zivimbela khona ukuncintisana kwemboni yaseMelika ngokumelene nabancintisana nabo abasebenza ngezithiyo ezimbalwa.

USenator uJohn Fetterman, yena, uzwakalise ukungabaza ngesidingo salokhu kuthengiswa, ekhumbula ukuthi INvidia manje iyinkampani ebaluleke kakhulu emhlabeni ngokwezimali zemaketheNgokombono wabo, akucaci ukuthi inkampani enkulu yama-chip idinga ukukhulisa imali engenayo yayo ngezindleko zokwandisa ukuthembela kwayo neChina endaweni ebucayi kangaka.

Ukuphepha kwezwe uma kuqhathaniswa nokuncintisana kwezobuchwepheshe

Ngaphandle kokungezwani kwezepolitiki, i-White House igcizelela ukuthi okubaluleke kakhulu kusalokhu gcina ukulawula ubuchwepheshe bamasuUkunciphisa ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwama-chip athuthuke kakhulu—njengeBlackwell noma iRubin—nokufaka ama-chip e-H200 ngaphansi kwelayisensi yecala ngalinye kuyingxenye yenqubomgomo yokulawula ubuchwepheshe ehlose ukuvimbela iShayina ukuvala igebe ngokuthenga nje ihadiwe yaseMelika.

Lo mqondo ubeka izinkampani ezifana neNvidia esimweni esibucayi: inkampani kumele ukulandela ngokucophelela imigomo yokuphepha kwezwe Uma ifuna ukugcina amalayisense ayo, isebenza njengesandiso sobuchwepheshe sesimiso sokulawula ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe saseWashington. Ukuthengiselana ngakunye okungaphathwanga kahle kungabangela izinhlawulo, uphenyo, noma ukuhoxiswa kwezimvume.

Embonini iyonke—kufaka phakathi abahlinzeki bamafu, abahlanganisi bezinhlelo, kanye nezinkampani ze-AI eYurophu—le ndawo isho ukuthi ukuzulazula olwandle lwemingcele yezobuchwepheshe neyezepolitiki ehlanganayoAkusekho nje ngokuhlola intengo kanye nokusebenza: indawo yezikhungo zedatha, indawo efanele, kanye nengozi yezepolitiki yizinto ezibaluleke kakhulu lapho kuklanywa amaphrojekthi obuhlakani bokwenziwa emhlabeni jikelele.

Umthelela nokufunda okuvela eYurophu naseSpain

Ngokombono waseYurophu, ikakhulukazi emazweni e-EU njengeSpain, lolu shintsho lweWashington lunemiphumela eminingana efanele. Okokuqala, Kuqinisa ukuthembela kweYurophu ezinqumweni zobuchwepheshe zase-US.Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi amandla amaningi ekhompyutha athuthukisiwe asetshenziswa izinkampani, amanyuvesi, kanye nezikhungo zocwaningo kulo lonke izwekazi ayaqhubeka nokuthembela kuma-chip e-Nvidia kanye nezinsizakalo zamafu ezisekelwe kuhadiwe yaseNyakatho Melika.

Abalingani base-United States baseYurophu, okuhlanganisa nohulumeni abaqhuba amaphrojekthi amakhulu e-AI kanye ne-supercomputing, baphoqeleka ukuthi basebenze vumelanisa inqubomgomo yayo yokuthumela ngaphandle kanye nokusetshenziswa kwama-chip athuthukile ngohlaka lwase-US uma befuna ukugcina ukufinyelela okukhethekile kulezi zobuchwepheshe. Lokhu Lokhu kungasho ukuyeka ingxenye yebhizinisi neShayina noma ezinye izindawo ezibhekwa njengezibucayi., ukuze kuqiniswe izibopho zokuphepha eziwela i-Atlantic.

KwaseSpain, efisa ukuzibeka njengesikhungo sedatha, izikhungo ze-supercomputing kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwe-AI eningizimu yeYurophuLesi simo sinikeza inhlanganisela yezinselelo namathuba. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukungaqiniseki kwemithetho kwenza kube nzima izinhlelo zesikhathi eside zezinkampani nohulumeni uma kukhulunywa ngokutshala imali engqalasizinda yokubala ngokusekelwe kubuchwepheshe base-US. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, isifiso sikaWashington sokuqinisekisa ukuthi ubuholi baseNtshonalanga kuma-semiconductors kanye ne-AI hardware bungahunyushwa kube Izivumelwano ezintsha zezimboni, ukutshalwa kwezimali kanye namaphrojekthi aseYurophu okwenziwa nokwakhiwa kwama-chip esizukulwane esilandelayo.

I-H200 njengophawu lomncintiswano omusha wezobuchwepheshe

Impi yokulawula i-H200 ibonisa izinga ubuchwepheshe obube yilo inkundla yokudlala ephakathi yomncintiswano womhlaba wonkeLawa ma-chip awasetshenziswa nje kuphela ukuqeqesha amamodeli olimi noma izinhlelo zokuqaphela izithombe; futhi ayizingxenye ezibalulekile zokulingisa okuyinkimbinkimbi, ukuhlaziywa kwedatha okukhulu, kanye nezinhlelo zokusebenza zempi zesizukulwane esilandelayo.

Ngokukhawulela nokulawula ukuthunyelwa kwayo kwamanye amazwe, i-United States ihlose ukunciphisa ijubane lemisebenzi ethile ebalulekile ezandleni zabaphikisi babo Futhi, ngesikhathi esifanayo, qhubeka nokuhola emncintiswaneni wobuhlakani bokwenziwa obuthuthukisiwe. I-China, yona, isabela ngokusheshisa ukuthuthukiswa kwezixazululo zayo kanye nokwakha uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka oluhlukile olungavezwa kakhulu yizijeziso noma ama-veto.

Ama-chips e-H200 aguqulwe aba into engaphezu komkhiqizo wezobuchwepheshe obusezingeni eliphezuluZiyi-barometer yokulinganisela kwamandla phakathi kwamandla amakhulu kanye nesikhumbuzo sokuthi ukubusa kwezomnotho kanye nezempi emashumini eminyaka ezayo kuzonqunywa kakhulu emkhakheni we-computing ethuthukisiwe kanye nengqalasizinda ye-AI. EYurophu naseSpain, inselele itholakala hhayi ekuhlaleni izibukeli nje kodwa ekutholeni indawo yazo emncintiswaneni lapho yonke ilayisensi, yonke intela, kanye nayo yonke isinqumo somthetho kungashintsha inkambo yomkhakha.