Silver price nears historic highs: causes, levels, and risks

The price of silver gained traction again and reached the range of $ 51 per ounce, a level not seen for several decades. The jump is supported by the combination of safe haven and industrial input, as well as expectations of monetary easing in the US and in a climate of greater macro uncertainty.

This push comes with the market in a delicate phase: technical indicators point to overbought conditions Already experiencing episodes of high volatility, pauses or pullbacks are not ruled out before a new directional move. Even so, the underlying demand and supply constraints maintain the underlying bias favorable to the white metal.

Recent developments and technical levels to watch

The technical structure remains constructive as long as the price remains above the 100-day exponential moving average On the daily chart, the 14-session RSI is hovering at high levels (around 79-80), suggesting possible consolidation without invalidating the main trend.

At the top, the area of 50,90-51,00 $ It acts as a key resistance by coinciding with the upper limit of the Bollinger Band and a psychological threshold. A clear close above could pave the way towards the all-time high in $ 51,24 and, above, the round step of $52,00.

In a bearish sense, the first relevant support is located at $ 47,74 (minimum of October 8), with additional references in $ 45,91 (minimum of October 2) and $ 43,78 (September 25 low). Losing them would increase the risk of a deeper correction.

Fundamental price drivers

The market chains its fifth year of deficit on offer: extraction is not enough to cover aggregate demand. According to Metals Focus, The imbalance could be around 187,6 million ounces. in 2025. , a historically high magnitude that ends up filtering into prices.

The industrial leg already represents nearly 59% of consumption total, with solar panels as the main vector: are expected to absorb around 195,7 million ounces this yearAdded to this are semiconductors (AI), electric vehicles, and consumer electronics, which are keeping the pressure on demand.

Geographically, India has emerged as growing source of investment Following the approval of silver-backed ETFs, while China increases industrial use for photovoltaics and related technologies. Two Asian engines pushing in parallel.

Macro context and demand for refuge

The search for hedges against inflation, high public debt, and geopolitical uncertainty is reinforcing the appeal of metals. As market analysts summarize, silver's dual role—shelter and industrial input— takes on greater weight when monetary policy aims for greater flexibility and the real economy requires more metal.

In the words of specialized operators, the great drivers of this recovery —reserve diversification and growth of global sovereign debt— remain intact, holding a medium-term bullish bias despite the short-term ups and downs.

The psychological barrier of $50 and the mirror of history

Area $ 50 It has been historically difficult to overcome and maintain over time.In episodes like 1980 and 2011, the approaches were followed by severe corrections. Some experts speak of "crossing the Rubicon" to refer to credibly consolidating above that threshold.

He also plans to debate a possible short squeeze. We have already seen sharp movements that ended in sharp turns. It is worth considering quick setbacks —for example, towards $45— without the background context changing significantly, a reminder that Silver is a particularly volatile market.

Gold/silver ratio and valuation scenarios

La The gold/silver ratio has fallen below its 10-year average., a movement that usually accompanies bullish phases in metals. In a hypothetical scenario where gold reached $ 4.200 and the ratio drops to 70, silver could be projected towards the environment of $ 60If gold were to correct to $3.600 and the ratio were to rise to 90, the implied valuation would be close to $ 40.

In the very short term, the Silver has outperformed gold despite small pauses in the yellow metalHowever, during correction phases, it tends to experience relatively deeper declines, so good risk management remains essential.

Tension in the London physical market

The Spot prices reached over $50,85, with the London market experiencing a shortage of available metal and a significant increase in borrowing costs. Fears of US tariffs have accelerated the transfer of inventories, while a substantial portion of the bars are compromised in vaults that back ETFs and do not flow to the market.

On the Comex, futures are still trading slightly below the January 1980 high ($ 50,35). The memory of the Hunt brothers' attempted takeover and the #SilverSqueeze episodes underscores the potential of sharp peaks and drops in short periods.

Short-term technical quote and targets

Intraday, Silver has risen to around 4,6%If the current trend continues, historical ranges since 2011 point to potential targets in 59-60 $, with an intermediate resistance around $ 55 (113% Fibonacci extension).

If the price corrects, the $45 area looms as support zone of interest, consistent with the 23,6% retracement of the bullish wave that began in April. An orderly rebound there would maintain the trend reading in favor of buyers.

What analysts expect

Some strategists contemplate that, if the market overcome the barrier of the $50 with solvency, silver could stabilize above that level. Projections from firms such as HSBC place the price around $ 55 in 2026. , with the possibility of moderation in the second half of that year.

With a mix of macro support, supply deficit, and tech demand, the bias remains positive, but with the usual caveat: do not oversize positions in an asset that moves violently and can alternate rapid upward movements with equally intense falls.

The general photo draws a metal that has recovered emblematic areas fueled by physical scarcity, search for shelter and industrial tractionTechnical levels mark the immediate roadmap, with resistance at $50,90-$51,00 and $52,00 and support at $47,74, $45,91, and $43,78. Between the possibility of extending the rally toward $55-$60 and the risk of corrections toward $40-$45, the key is to manage volatility and closely monitor the physical market.