- The Witcher IV could cost close to $800 million between development and marketing.
- The production cost is estimated at around $388-389 million, with a similar figure for the advertising campaign.
- CD Projekt RED is planning a new trilogy in about six years from the launch, scheduled for 2027 at the earliest.
- To be profitable, the game would need to sell around 16 million copies, well above the industry average.
CD Projekt RED's next big project, The Witcher IVIt has become one of the most frequently mentioned names in industry financial reports, even though it hasn't been fully showcased. Years before its planned release, what's generating the most buzz isn't so much its story or mechanics, but rather... exorbitant budget that its development could reach.
Different analyses of firms such as Noble SecuritiesReports, published in Polish financial media such as Strefa Inwestorów and picked up by the European specialized press, suggest that CD Projekt's new fantasy RPG could be among the 776 and the nearly 800 million dollars when development and marketing are factored in. These aren't official figures, but they paint a picture where The Witcher IV would be among the most expensive video games in history, competing in a similar league to productions like GTA VI.
An almost unprecedented budget for an RPG
The key name in these estimates is that of the analyst. Mateusz Chrzanowski, from Noble Securities. According to their calculations, the cost of pure development The Witcher IV would be around 1.400 billion zlotysthat is, some 388-389 million dollars at the current exchange rate. The Polish company would invest a virtually equivalent amount in the commercial aspect, which would place the total project budget at around 776-778,9 million dollars.
Other projections expressed in euros speak of about 665 million, starting from an estimated investment of 2.800 billion zlotys between production and marketing. Although the exact figures vary slightly depending on the source and the time of the calculation, they all agree on one key point: the new Witcher would fall within an investment range far superior to any previous installment in the saga and even above Cyberpunk 2077.
To understand the scale of the leap, one only needs to look back. The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt had a cost that, according to data handled by analysts, was around 306 billion zlotys, around $81 million, with some 40 million euros approximate if another reference is taken: 15 million for development and around 25 million for marketingCompared to that production, The Witcher IV would be an order of magnitude ahead. ten times greater.
Even when compared to Cyberpunk 2077, which has been cited on several occasions as a project close to or better than the 400-442 million dollars Including the Phantom Liberty DLC, the projections for the fourth installment of The Witcher leave it far behind. The studio's goal would be a much more open-world RPG ambitious, expensive and technologically advanced than everything they have published to date.
Breakdown: development versus marketing
Estimates agree on a fairly balanced distribution between production and promotion. Around 388-389 million dollars would be destined for game development, while the marketing campaign would operate in a very similar range, approaching the $800 million combined budget.
In the development section, the increase in costs is related to several factors. On the one hand, the leap to Unreal Engine 5 As a base engine, it represents a significant effort in adaptation and the creation of its own tools. CD Projekt has noted that the studio has been almost four years working with Unreal Engine 5 in The Witcher 4, which implies a long and therefore expensive cycle. Added to this is the size of the team: various reports mention about 450-500 developers dedicated to the project, a staff that implies sustained spending over years.
On the other hand, advertising has become a central element in blockbusters of this scale. Analysts emphasize that CD Projekt RED will likely focus on global marketing campaigns, continued presence at major trade fairs, high-budget CGI trailersCommercial agreements with other brands and long-term visibility strategies. In practice, this puts advertising spending on par with development costs, something already common in top-tier AAA titles.
This cost structure is not an isolated anomaly, but rather a continuation of an upward trend in the industry. In the last decade, games like Grand Theft Auto V o Red Dead Redemption 2 have set precedents with combined budgets of 240 million and between 340 and 500 million eurosrespectively. The Witcher IV, if the forecasts are confirmed, would be above those figures, only behind such mammoth projects as the rumored budget of GTA VI.
A new trilogy in six years and a distant horizon
Beyond money, financial reports also provide clues about the long-term plan from CD Projekt RED for the brand. Various interventions by the co-CEO Michał Nowakowski And the documents analyzed by Noble Securities indicate that The Witcher IV will be the beginning of a new trilogywith the intention of releasing all three installments within a period of six years from the first one.
The Polish company has stated that one of its objectives is reduce development times Between installments, compared to what happened with The Witcher 3, they're relying precisely on the experience gained with Unreal Engine 5 and the production structure they're building around that first game. The plan is to concentrate the heaviest technological effort now, so that the sequels can take advantage of that work without starting from scratch.
As for dates, analysts' forecasts place the The Witcher IV will not be released before 2027Some internal estimates even speak of last quarter of 2027 as a likely window, which practically rules out a 2026 premiere. In other words, European players still have a long wait ahead of them before they can set foot on the Continent again.
Meanwhile, CD Projekt RED plans to continue supporting The Witcher 3The same reports point to the possibility of a new bonus content for the third installment about May 2026, a way to keep interest in the saga alive until the new generation of games is ready to be released.
A colossal RPG and what it needs to sell to be profitable
The size of the budget inevitably leads to the key question: How many copies would The Witcher IV have to sell to cover its costs? Starting from an estimate close to $778,9 million of total investment and a standard launch price of $70Several analyses have made approximate figures.
If we take into account that the main digital stores —Steam, PlayStation Store, Xbox— remain around the 30% of the sale priceThe amount that actually reaches the publisher for each copy is considerably less. With those margins, calculations place the break-even point of The Witcher IV around the 15,9-16 million units soldFrom that point on, the project would begin to generate profits.
Analysts believe that this figure, although high, is reachable for a brand with the history of The Witcher. The Witcher 3 has surpassed the 60 million copies sold since its launch, and Cyberpunk 2077 reached close 13,7 million units in its first three weeksDespite initial performance issues and criticism, with a more polished launch, solid critical reception, and a well-paced marketing campaign, The Witcher IV could potentially surpass the $16 million mark in its first few months on the global market.
In an optimistic scenario, everything above 18 million copies This would be considered a resounding success in the eyes of investors. That's why financial firms closely monitor any data related to its production, and why the game frequently appears in reports aimed at shareholders in Europe, and particularly in Poland.
Comparison with other giants in the sector
The potential budget for The Witcher IV cannot be fully understood without comparing it to others. major AAA releases that have marked the last decade. As a historical reference, GTA V It once became the most expensive video game in the world, costing approximately 240 million euros between development and marketing. Later, Red Dead Redemption 2 raised that bar with an estimated range of 340 to 500 million euros, taking into account its long production cycle and a global advertising campaign.
In the case of Cyberpunk 2077CD Projekt RED had already positioned themselves at the top of the table, with around 400-442 million in dollars if you include the base game, post-launch support, and its expansion. Despite this, projections for The Witcher IV would clearly exceed that amount, making the fourth installment the most expensive project in the history of the Polish studio by far.
Several reports even suggest that The Witcher IV could be set second only to GTA VI in terms of total investment, with the latter reportedly hovering around figures close to $2.000 millionIf the data handled by Noble Securities is confirmed, the new chapter in the saga of Geralt and Ciri would be placed ahead of proposals such as Star Citizen with regard to the sum of development and marketing, at least taking as a reference the figures for public funding that are known.
In this context, the enormous budget doesn't appear as an isolated whim, but as CD Projekt RED's response to a market where the open-world blockbusters They demand massive investments to compete in visual quality, content size, dubbing, full localization into multiple European languages, online infrastructure, and promotional campaigns that reach both PC gamers and console users in Spain and the rest of the continent.
What is known about the game and CD Projekt RED's approach
Beyond the figures, leaks and public statements allow us to outline some basic elements about the game itself. Everything points to the fact that Ciri will have a central role in this new stage, to the point that various sources refer to The Witcher IV as Ciri's adventureAlthough CD Projekt has not yet detailed the cast of protagonists between her and Geralt of Rivia.
Regarding the setting, some analyses mention that the plot could move part of the action to the kingdom of KovirThis would open the door to a new region of the Continent with its own politics, conflicts, and aesthetic. There's no official confirmation of this either, but it would fit with the idea of a new trilogy less tied to the locations already explored in The Witcher 3.
In technical terms, CD Projekt RED has opted for a complete transition to Unreal Engine 5 and has strengthened its squad with significant signings, including veterans who have worked on acclaimed RPGs such as Baldur's Gate 3The study insists that it wants to build more effective development processes. robust and prudent to avoid the planning failures and launch problems that plagued Cyberpunk 2077 at its release.
For now, The Witcher IV is announced for PCs and desktop consoleswithout specifying whether it will be the current ones PS5 and Xbox Series X|S or its successors. Since its premiere is not expected before 2027It is possible that this could coincide with a potential generational shift in Europe, which also influences sales forecasts and the duration of its commercial life.
In any case, all sources agree that the game is still in a relatively early stage of development by the standards of a production of this caliber, so the information that has emerged so far should be taken as financial projections and not as a closed roadmap. Neither CD Projekt RED nor its spokespeople have confirmed budget figures or specific release windows, beyond emphasizing that the new trilogy will unfold, at the earliest, over six years starting in 2027.
With such staggering figures and so many years ahead, The Witcher IV is shaping up to be a key project for both CD Projekt RED and the entire European video game industry. If the forecasts of almost 800 billion dollars In terms of investment, they are getting closer to reality; their success or failure will be more than just a simple launch: it will be a benchmark to measure how high the costs of an open-world RPG can go and what sales volume a blockbuster really needs to sustain this large-scale development model.
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