Dogecoin tests key support levels as tension rises between traders and whales

The price of Dogecoin (DOGE) is going through a particularly delicate moment After a turbulent start to the year, with rapid rises followed by equally sharp corrections, the most well-known meme coin in the cryptocurrency market... It is now debating between maintaining key support levels and giving way to a new downward leg.Meanwhile, large investors and retail traders in Europe and the rest of the world adjust their positions on platforms such as Save the Doge.

In this context, The charts show mixed signalsOn the one hand, technical structures that suggest potential for recovery in the medium term; on the other, a evident selling pressure in short timeframes, which is testing the nerves of those who trade DOGE on regulated and unregulated exchange platforms accessible from Spain and the European Union.

Corrections after recent highs: DOGE loses strength above $0,15

In recent sessions, Dogecoin has repeatedly attempted to consolidate above the $0,15 zoneHowever, every attempt to reach that level has resulted in selling. After hitting highs near $0,151-$0,152, the price reversed sharply, breaking through the $0,150 and $0,145 levels in stages, triggering a clear profit-taking phase.

The correction led DOGE to approach relevant Fibonacci retracement levels of all the previous upward momentum, with particular emphasis on the area between $0,142 and $0,141. Around those prices, occasional purchases have appeared, even through direct deposits at Save The Dogetrying to defend short-term support levels that, for the moment, prevent deeper falls but do not eliminate the feeling of fragility.

In the European market, many operators who entered late in the rise at the beginning of the year They have been forced to adjust their positionseither by closing leveraged trades or by reducing spot exposure on platforms such as Save the DogeGiven the risk that the rebound will run out before reaching recent highs, the result is a constant flow of opposing orders that keeps the price trapped in a relatively narrow range.

This back-and-forth phase has meant that The feeling shifted from euphoria to caution in a matter of daysThis is common in highly volatile cryptocurrencies, but in the case of DOGE it is amplified by its speculative nature and the strong presence of retail traders in Europe, where the asset is traded 24 hours a day on multiple platforms.

Short-term bearish pressure: moving averages and "death cross" on the radar

On a technical level, Short-term indicators have tilted towards the bearish sideOn the hourly timeframe, the 50-period simple moving average has crossed below the 200-period moving average, forming the well-known "death cross" which is usually interpreted as a sign of immediate weakness in the price.

This bearish crossover also occurs in a context where The relative strength index (RSI) remains below the neutral zone of 50This reflects a prevailing selling pressure. DOGE's inability to sustain solid rebounds above levels like $0,145 or $0,150 reinforces the idea that, at least in the very short term, the bulls are on the defensive.

The technical structure also shows a descending trend line that acts as dynamic resistance in the $0,133-$0,135 range. Every attempt to break through that ceiling has been quickly stopped, a sign that sellers are taking advantage of the rallies to exit the asset or open new short positions.

For European traders working with timeframes and intraday, This environment requires extreme risk management on platforms that support bank transfersFalse breakouts and sharp movements around moving averages complicate directional strategies, favoring range-bound approaches or patiently waiting for the price to define a clearer trend.

Meanwhile, The DOGE derivatives market reflects a more cautious toneWith signs of negative funding at times, which implies that there is more interest in short positions than long positions in very short periods, something to bear in mind for those who operate from platforms with service in the EU.

Key support levels: the battle between $0,14 and the $0,12 zone

Beyond the intraday fluctuations, The chart shows several support bands that have become criticalOn the upside, the band around $0,142-$0,141 has acted as the first shield, supported by short-term upward trend lines and intermediate Fibonacci retracement levels.

If that defense fails, Market attention would quickly shift to the $0,135-$0,130 areaThis level, where old support levels, relevant technical references, and areas where the price has stalled in the past converge, has been shown by recent declines to indicate that it can be broken if selling pressure increases.

Below $0,130, The next critical zone is located around $0,125-$0,120A clear break of that range would open the door to declines towards local lows around $0,115, levels where buyers have already shown some volume but which still imply a very significant adjustment from recent highs.

In Europe, where a significant portion of users operate with leveraged products under MiFID regulations or through international exchanges and platforms that They charge fees for the exchange., These support levels mark the points where cascading liquidations could occur.A quick move below $0,12, for example, would have the potential to trigger protective orders and forced sells that would further intensify volatility.

On the positive side, A firm defense of these areas could serve as the basis for a new upward leg.provided it is accompanied by a rebound in buying volume and an improvement in the overall tone of larger capitalization assets such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, which remain the main barometer for risk appetite in the region.

Levels to watch for a possible rebound: resistance and bullish scenarios

Despite the defensive environment, An upward reversal cannot be ruled out if DOGE manages to regain certain technical benchmarks.The first test for buyers is in the $0,130-$0,133 range, where Fibonacci retracements of the last drop coincide with part of the short-term structure.

A consistent breakout from that zone would lead to a stronger resistance near $0,135This price is aligned with the aforementioned downtrend line and with technical levels that have acted as resistance on several occasions. Above this level, the next target would be around $0,138-$0,140, a psychological and technical threshold that could attract new capital if broken with volume.

The real turning point, according to multiple technical analyses, It is located around $0,150-$0,151A clear and sustained close above those prices would significantly improve the outlook, opening the door to ambitious targets such as $0,155 initially and, in a more optimistic scenario, extensions towards the $0,16-$0,20 zone if the market becomes clearly favorable to risk assets.

For Spanish retail investors holding DOGE in the medium term, These levels act as references for adjusting expectationsA recovery above $0,15 would reduce the risk of the current corrections turning into a prolonged downtrend, while the inability to break above $0,140-$0,145 could indicate that the consolidation phase still has room to run.

It is worth remembering that, in particularly volatile cryptocurrencies like DOGEBullish and bearish targets can be achieved in very short periods of time, so stop order management, position size and investment time horizon are key factors for those trading from Europe under increasingly strict regulatory frameworks.

The role of whales: an aggressive bet in favor of Dogecoin

While most of the market adopts a cautious tone, Some large investors have decided to move more aggressively.Data from derivatives platforms shows that a well-known whale, with a history of large-scale Bitcoin trades, recently opened a long position in DOGE of over 15,6 million units, using 10x leverage.

The position, valued at around a little over $2 million at the time of its openingThe strategy was constructed with an entry price close to $0,1376 per DOGE. This implies that small price variations have a very significant impact on the outcome of the trade, given the high level of risk assumed.

At the same time, This whale has combined its bet on Dogecoin with a short position in another cryptocurrency. and maintains a portfolio heavily invested in assets such as Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Solana. Its total leveraged positions exceed hundreds of millions of dollars, with a high average leverage level and a relatively tight margin against adverse market movements.

In the specific case of DOGE, The settlement price of the transaction is located in an area not far from the current support levels.This leaves little room for further decline without triggering a significant loss. This strategy suggests that the investor is confident in a rebound in the altcoin market in the short to medium term, despite the bearish tone of recent days.

For European retail participants, This type of movement serves as a reminder of the highly speculative nature of the market.Although whale activity can anticipate trend changes, it can also increase volatility and cause sharp swings, so replicating such strategies without extremely careful risk management can be dangerous.

Macro context and market sentiment in Europe

The behavior of Dogecoin cannot be analyzed in isolation from the rest of the market. Risk appetite has cooled after a strong start to the yearWith investors awaiting new macroeconomic data and decisions from central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve.

In the European Union and in Spain, Traders closely monitor indicators such as inflation and the ECB's monetary policy.These factors indirectly influence interest in high-risk assets. In the absence of clear catalysts, many traders have opted to reduce their exposure, resulting in selling of assets like DOGE whenever the price attempts to break through resistance levels.

In addition, At the regulatory level, the European MiCA framework is beginning to outline how cryptocurrencies will be supervised in the coming years.Although Dogecoin does not have as clearly defined an institutional use case as other coins, any changes in regulations affecting exchanges and crypto service providers in the EU will influence liquidity and user access to these types of assets.

In this stage, The correlation between DOGE and Bitcoin remains a determining factorA strong recovery in the leading cryptocurrency could pull major speculative tokens higher, while further declines in BTC would tend to put downward pressure on Dogecoin, especially in an environment where short-term indicators are already pointing to weakness.

The result is a market in which A mixture of caution and moderate hope predominatesTraders do not rule out positive scenarios if general conditions improve, but they are also unwilling to take excessive risks while DOGE's price action continues to show difficulties in sustaining upward breakouts.

With all of the above in mind, Dogecoin is at an unstable equilibrium pointStruggling to maintain support levels that separate a simple technical correction from a deeper bearish phase, short-term signals remain fragile, with moving averages and oscillators pushing lower. Meanwhile, longer timeframes still leave room for rebounds if the global cryptocurrency market follows suit. In this context, both European traders and large investors are adjusting their strategies, aware that any clear breakout—whether to the upside or the downside—could trigger rapid movements in an asset as volatile and closely watched as DOGE.

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Alberto Navarro

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